The complicated senate race to replace Diane Feinstein

Image source, Los Angeles Times via Getty Images

Dianne Feinstein’s death could throw the race to replace her into chaos.

A senate race featuring high-profile, ambitious Democrats is already underway to replace her in November 2024.

But now California’s governor must appoint a temporary stand-in, potentially altering the contest dynamics.

The surprise twist could cause political headaches in California’s Democratic establishment for months to come.

A spokesman for Governor Gavin Newsom did not comment on a potential appointment.

The first wrinkle Ms Feinstein’s death creates is a double-election.

Under California law, a special election must now take place to fill the remainder of Ms Feinstein’s term, even after Mr Newsom appoints a temporary senator.

The California Secretary of State’s office, which oversees elections, confirmed to the BBC that the state would hold two concurrent Senate elections in 2024: one special election to finish out Ms Feinstein’s term, which ends in January 2025, and the regularly scheduled election to hold the US Senate seat for a six-year term ending in 2031.

The arrangement may confuse some voters who will have to vote for the same seat twice on election day.

Further, candidates can legally run in both elections. But it is not yet clear if any Senate hopeful will attempt this gambit.

An already complicated race

The regularly scheduled election also presents political obstacles for the governor and the candidates.

California will not hold its US senate primary until 5 March 2024. A large pack of candidates is currently led by congressmembers Adam Schiff, Katie Porter, and Barbara Lee, all Democrats with national profiles.

The state’s nonpartisan primaries will allow the two candidates who get the most votes, regardless of partisan affiliation, to advance to the general election.

Mr Schiff and Ms Porter are currently the leading contenders to secure those spots, a September poll from the UC Berkeley Institute for Governmental Studies indicated. But one in three voters remain undecided.

Mr Newsom, a Democrat who described Ms Feinstein as “a dear friend, a lifelong mentor, and a role model”, finds himself in the middle of a political conundrum.

He must now appoint the interim replacement for Ms Feinstein. California, which is dominated by Democrats, has no shortage of rising political stars for him to choose from.

But Mr Newsom set himself parameters months ago. The staunch liberal has pledged to appoint a black woman to the seat, owing to the lack of such representation in the US senate.

And there is currently just the candidate already running: Congresswoman Lee. But choosing her to serve in Washington, even briefly, and build name recognition could tip the scales in the senate race.

For months, some progressives have called for Mr Newsom to appoint Ms Lee.

But before Ms Feinstein’s passing, Mr Newsom indicated he would not take this path.

“I don’t want to get involved in the primary,” he told NBC’s Meet the Press in early September. “It would be completely unfair to the Democrats [who] have worked their tails off. That primary is just a matter of months away. I don’t want to tip the balance of that.”

Now, he is being confronted with a difficult choice.

“It’s a decision he would rather not have to have made,” said Eric Schickler, co-director of UC Berkeley’s Institute of Governmental Studies.

The governor will also have to act quickly. With Ms Feinstein gone, the Senate is now divided evenly between Democrats and Republicans during a critical legislative showdown.

“Given that there’s going to be a lot of time sensitivity, given the spending fight in the Senate right now I think the expectation is, there’s a strong interest in him moving fast,” Mr Schickler said.

A spokesman for Mr Newsom did not address questions about when he would name an interim senator or if he would stick to his commitment to appoint a black woman. Instead, his office referred the BBC to Mr Newsom’s statement honouring Ms Feinstein’s passing on Friday.

Mr Newsom could potentially choose an individual with no plans to run for election, such as a veteran Democrat near retirement or a policy expert, who might view the assignment as a capstone to their career.

“As long as it is a caretaker, somebody who’s not running again, I think it keeps a lot of the status quo kind of locked in,” Mr Schickler said.

Following his interview on Meet the Press, the powerful Congressional Black Caucus criticized Mr Newsom’s stance.

“Rep Barbara Lee remains the most eminently qualified to serve in this role should an opportunity to appoint someone come to the governor’s desk,” caucus chair Rep Steven Horsford told the Washington Post.

On Friday, Ms Lee’s campaign posted her condolences for Ms Feinstein on X, but did not weigh in on Mr Newsom’s appointment power.

Ms Porter and Mr Schiff took a similar tone, praising Ms Feinstein’s legacy and making no mention of the election.