CPAC 2023: Donald Trump still runs the Republican Party

Dressed in red, white and blue sequined jackets, and carrying matching tote bags, their names spelled out T-R-U-M-P as they navigated the crowd.

They identified themselves as “the Trump tribe from Texas”, a quintet that supports the former US president “1,000%” in his third White House run.

Other Republicans should step aside, said group leader Michael Manuel Reaud. “Let the only man that knows how to run this country run the country. We don’t want to divide the vote.”

That is a message Donald Trump would happily endorse. He launched his 2024 presidential campaign back in November as the clear frontrunner, but there are 11 months to go before Republicans even begin voting on who their nominee should be and he is expected to face a stiff challenge from within the party.

On Saturday, he will deliver the keynote address at the annual Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC). Often touted as the premiere event on the Republican Party calendar, CPAC has transformed in recent years into a heavily pro-Trump affair.

The four-day political jamboree is emblematic of Republicans’ elephant in the room: the man that pulled off one of the most improbable political upsets in American history is now seen by many in his own party as standing in the way of the movement he built.

In recent surveys, Mr Trump still claims a commanding lead over prospective challengers, with only Florida Governor Ron DeSantis – a rising star widely expected to run – polling in the double digits. But a majority of Americans view Mr Trump unfavourably.

“Donald Trump is going to have a bit of an electability problem heading into the primary [election],” Zachary Wangua, a 22-year-old attendee, told the BBC.

He’s not convinced that, having lost to Joe Biden in 2020, Mr Trump can beat the Democratic incumbent at the next election.

“Trump was a great president and he did a lot for the conservative movement. Moving forward, we have to see how we can capitalise and push the movement to new lengths,” he said.

Mr Wangua argues Mr DeSantis should be the one to lead Republicans and may even “miss his shot if he doesn’t run” this time.

Arguably the biggest absence from this year’s CPAC, Mr DeSantis will instead be the main draw this weekend at a private donor retreat in his home state.

That event, held by the increasingly anti-Trump conservative group Club for Growth, will also host at least six others with presidential buzz including Mr Trump’s Vice-President Mike Pence.

“I think they’re trying to avoid pre-primary conflict with Trump,” said Lance Liang, 59, a Chinese immigrant to the area who is at his first CPAC.

He said Mr Trump “woke up a lot of people like me” and is the best choice for 2024, but will struggle to beat Mr Biden.

“You want to win, choose DeSantis. You want to get the job done, choose Trump,” he quipped.

Richard and Jean Belleville, both in their 80s, say there is very little policy difference between the two men and Mr DeSantis has “done a great job in Florida”.

But recounting a recent DeSantis speech he had watched, Mr Belleville complained: “He is not charismatic at all.”

His wife was more charitable, arguing that the 44-year-old governor is still learning. “Give Trump another chance,” she said. “DeSantis will have his chance.”

Other CPAC attendees were much less forgiving. Several hinted they would back Mr Trump even if he ran as an independent – a potential nightmare scenario for Republicans that could split the vote.

Ruby Woron is “Trump or bust”.

“If they choose to install anyone else on the 2024 ticket, they will not get the vote of the grassroots,” she said. “We’re not a cult, we’re a movement.”

“He should start his own party,” said Theresa McManus. “I’d like to see the Patriot Party and I’d be first in line to sign up.”

But some voters point out it is still early days in the 2024 primary and a lot could change over the next year.

Ashlie Hightower prefers Mr Trump, but is open to Mr DeSantis and former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley, who joined the race last month and spoke before a half-empty hall at CPAC on Friday afternoon.

“It depends on what they declare their platform is and the issues they take a stand on,” Ms Hightower said.

Rebecca Schmidgall is also leaning toward Mr Trump but hopes voters will pay attention to Vivek Ramaswamy, an Indian-American businessman who has launched his own long-shot White House bid.

“I don’t think he holds a chance right now just because of name recognition,” she said. “But he’s going to improve the conversation and push the right agenda.”

Both women said whoever wins the Republican nomination can beat President Biden in a general election.

“We have no country right now. We don’t have a southern border. Our economy is in the tank. Ukraine is our 51st state,” said Ms Schmidgall. “There’s nothing they can run on.”

But an underwhelming Republican performance in last November’s midterm elections has cast doubt over what kind of message can win the next election.

Republicans failed to recapture the Senate and barely reclaimed the House of Representatives, with Mr Trump accused of propping up poor candidates. Meanwhile, Governor DeSantis breezed to re-election in Florida.

Mr Trump, who denied blame for the party’s midterms disappointment, has pre-emptively attacked his would-be rivals on social media, raising fears of a brutal and protracted primary that could damage the eventual nominee.

“The direction of the Republican Party should be unity,” said Christopher Anderson, a staunch Trump supporter attending his first CPAC. “We should be fighting the Democrats, not each other.”

His solution? Mr Trump and Mr DeSantis on the same ticket as president and vice-president.