Putin’s former speechwriter says military coup is becoming a possibility

A military coup is becoming a possibility in Russia as the war in Ukraine continues, President Vladimir Putin’s former speechwriter said Monday.

Speaking to CNN’s Erin Burnett, speechwriter turned political analyst Abbas Gallyamov said that as Russian losses mount in Ukraine and the country experiences hardship brought by Western sanctions, Russians will look for someone to blame.

“The Russian economy is deteriorating. The war is lost. There are more and more dead bodies returning to Russia, so Russians will be coming across more difficulties and they’ll be trying to find explanation why this is happening, looking around to the political process and they’ll be answering themselves: ‘Well, this is because our country is governed by an old tyrant, an old dictator,'” Gallyamov said, referring to Putin.

That moment may come in the next 12 months, he said.

“So in one year when the political situation changes and there’s a really hated unpopular president at the head of the country and the war is really unpopular, and they need to shed blood for this, at this moment, a coup becomes a real possibility,” he added.

Gallyamov also said he believes Putin may cancel presidential elections scheduled to be held in March 2024.

A former Wagner mercenary says the brutality he witnessed in Ukraine ultimately pushed him to defect, in an exclusive CNN interview on Monday.

Wagner fighters were often sent into battle with little direction, and the company’s treatment of reluctant recruits was ruthless, Andrei Medvedev told CNN’s Anderson Cooper from Norway’s capital Oslo, where he is seeking asylum after crossing that country’s arctic border from Russia.

CNN has not been able to independently verify his account and Wagner has not replied to a request for comment.

The 26-year-old, who says he previously served in the Russian military, joined Wagner as a volunteer. He crossed into Ukraine less than 10 days after signing his contract in July 2021, serving near Bakhmut, the frontline city in the Donetsk region. The mercenary group has emerged as a key player in Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Medvedev said he reported directly to the group’s founders, Dmitry Utkin and Russian oligarch Yevgeny Prigozhin.

He refers to Prigozhin as “the devil.” If he was a Russian hero, he would have taken a gun and run with the soldiers,” Medvedev said.

Read more:

White House National Security Council Coordinator for Strategic Communications John Kirby on Monday defended the Biden administration’s decision not to send F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine, pointing instead to the aid the US is providing, including Abrams tanks.

“What I can tell you is that there’s a lot of capability that is being sent, and will be sent in the coming weeks and months,” Kirby told CNN. “The kinds of capabilities that we know will be critical to helping Ukrainians again in the fighting now in the wintertime, as well as the kind of fighting that we expect that they’re going to be doing in the spring.”  

Kirby said he believes the decision,announced last week, to send Abrams tanks to the region wasn’t one that was made too late, even amid reports of Russia gaining territory in eastern Ukraine.

Some background: President Joe Biden answered, “No,” when asked by a reporter whether he would send the jets to Ukraine.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has sought fighter jets to help sustain his war effort against Russia. Biden has consistently said the planes aren’t on the table, even as he has given aid in other areas.

A married couple in the southwestern Russian city of Krasnodar was arrested Sunday for professing anti-war sentiments during a private conversation in a restaurant, according to the independent Russian monitoring group OVD-Info.

OVD-Info told CNN that Aleksey Ovchinnikov was sentenced to 15 days in prison for petty hooliganism and his wife, Olesya Ovchinnikova, received a 1,000 rubles ($14) fine.

Olesya Ovchinnikova is also facing charges for discrediting the Russian army, according to reporting from local media 93.RU, citing her lawyer.

CNN has sought comment from the couple’s lawyer. The restaurant where the incident is said to have taken place, “Na Drovoh,” would not comment to CNN.

Crackdown on anti-war sentiments: OVD-Info said at least 61 cases related to expressing anti-war views were initiated in Russia in 2022 on the charges of justification of terrorism on the internet, with 26 leading to sentencing so far.

In another notable case, 19-year-old Olesya Krivtsova was charged over social media posts that authorities say discredit the Russian army and justify terrorism. She posted an Instagram story about the explosion on the Crimean bridge in October that also criticized Russia for invading Ukraine, according to Russian officials.

US President Joe Biden said Monday he wouldn’t send American fighter jets to Ukraine, even as the United States ramps up military assistance in the form of artillery and tanks. 

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has sought fighter jets to help sustain his war effort against Russia. Biden has consistently said the planes aren’t on the table, even as he has given aid in other areas.

Last week, for example, Biden announced he would send 31 M1 Abrams tanks to Ukraine, despite top US officials saying previously the heavy-duty vehicles were a poor fit for the country’s military.

Speaking on the White House South Lawn, Biden also said he wasn’t sure whether he would visit Europe next month for the first anniversary of the start of the war in Ukraine.

In response to a separate question, Biden said he was planning to visit Poland, but wasn’t sure when.

CNN reported last week the White House was exploring the possibility of a Biden visit to Europe to mark 12 months since Russia invaded Ukraine.

Some background: Ukrainian leaders have renewed their appeals for Western fighter jets. “I sent a wish list card to Santa Claus last year, and fighter jets also [were] including in this wish list,” Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov told CNN last week.

US National Security Council spokesperson John Kirby acknowledged Friday that Zelensky had asked for fighter jets. “We are constantly talking to the Ukrainians about their needs, and want to make sure that we’re doing the best we can to meet them — and if we can’t, that some of our allies and partners can,” Kirby said.

The pine forests near the city of Kreminna have become one of the hottest combat zones in the war in eastern Ukraine. Almost every weapon seems to be at work here, artillery, howitzers, tanks and mortars. But perhaps the most important is the smallest: The reconnaissance drone.

Ukrainian and Russian forces have been fighting here for nearly two months. If the Ukrainians can break through Russian lines and reach Kreminna, they can disrupt Russian supply routes.

But it’s a much tougher proposition than it was at the end of last year. Russia’s defensive lines have been reinforced with heavy weapons and long-range artillery.

CNN accompanied two Ukrainian drone operators from the Dnipro-1 battalion deep into the forest to see how they operate. The journey was along tracks of soft sand amid a thin canopy of pine trees, through an eerie landscape dotted with streams and bogs.

Read the full story here.

France and Australia said Monday they would collaborate on a multi-million dollar project to produce “several thousand” artillery shells for Ukraine.

The announcement came as foreign and defense ministers of both countries met in Paris.

“Several thousand 155-millimeter shells are going to be manufactured in common, with an unprecedented partnership between Australia and France,” French Defense Minister Sébastien Lecornu told a news conference.

Lecornu said French arms company Nexter would partner with Australian companies, which would provide the powder for the shells.

Neither minister would specify quantities beyond “several thousand” artillery shells but they indicated this would be a long-term collaboration.

More on artillery to Ukraine: CNN reported in early January that the United States had moved some of the 300,000 155-millimeter shells the US and Israel agreed would be transferred to Ukraine. In November, a US official told CNN the US intended to buy 100,000 rounds of artillery ammunition from South Korean arms manufacturers to provide to Kyiv.

The “constant” fighting in and around the eastern Ukrainian city of Bakhmut has been “a living hell” as Russian forces try to take control of the Kostiantynivka-Bakhmut highway, a Ukrainian commander said in an interview on Ukrainian television Monday.  

He said he couldn’t say for certain whether Russian forces are making a full-scale offensive and whether their tactics have changed, but that it seems Wagner fighters have been replaced by Russian paratroopers. 

Nazarenko went on to say the Ukrainian fighters “are doing an incredible job” and are “real heroes.”

“The enemy is trying to take control of the Kostiantynivka-Bakhmut highway. They are not successful in it. Our fighters are doing their best: The Armed Forces and the National Guard are doing an incredible job; they are real heroes. And the enemy is suffering huge, huge losses,” he said.

CNN has not been able to independently verify the claims about the losses. 

“What we see is that Wagner is almost completely destroyed. They have now been replaced by paratroopers, who also suffer losses almost every day, not only in manpower but also in armored vehicles,” he added.