Everything you need to know about Georgia’s Senate runoff

CNN’s recent poll of the Georgia Senate runoff showed Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock narrowly leading Republican challenger Herschel Walker 52% to 48% among likely voters.

According to the survey, nearly half of those who backed Walker (47%) said their vote was more about opposition to Warnock than support for their candidate. 52% said their vote was more to support Walker.

Warnock’s supporters broadly said they were casting ballots to support their candidate (83%) rather than to oppose Walker (17%).

That difference, the poll suggests, could be a factor in driving turnout in the race.

The runoff between Warnock and Walker is the only race on the ballot in most of the state, and voters who say they are voting more to support their Senate candidate than to oppose the other candidate expressed deeper motivation to vote — 79% of likely voters who said their vote was to support their chosen candidate were extremely motivated to vote, compared with 69% among those who said their vote was more one of opposition.

Read more here.

Former President Donald Trump’s influence on Georgia voters isn’t merely about his favorable or unfavorable ratings. Examine the coalitions that Herschel Walker and Raphael Warnock are relying on to win next week.

Not surprisingly, Walker leads among White voters and Warnock with Black voters, according to CNN’s recent poll of the Georgia Senate runoff. This is what you’d expect in most closely divided states.

But what might have floored a political analyst a mere eight years ago is the extent of the educational divide among White voters in Georgia. Walker was ahead 83% to 17% among White voters without a college degree. His lead shrunk to 51% to 47% among White voters with a college degree.

Compare that with what we saw in the 2014 Senate exit poll from Georgia (i.e., the last Senate election in the Peach State before Trump first announced for president). Republican David Perdue won 80% of White non-college-educated voters and 70% of White college-educated voters.

Indeed, arguably the biggest reason Democrats are now competitive in Georgia elections is how much more Democratic college-educated White voters have become. The way Trump built coalitions (i.e., relying on non-college-educated White voters at the expense of college-educated White voters) is a large part of that.

Unlike in most states, though, there wasn’t a lot of ground Republicans could gain among non-college-educated White voters in Georgia. They were already solidly Republican. There was a ton of ground, however, that the GOP could lose among White voters with a college degree.

This made Georgia a perfect place for Democrats to make gains because a significant portion of the state’s White population holds a college degree. In the CNN poll, 45% of likely White runoff voters have a college degree.

When Warnock combines support from these White college-educated voters with the deeply Democratic Black vote (which made up nearly 30% of the likely electorate in the CNN poll), it gives him a small advantage as the campaign comes to a close.

Keep reading here.

Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger on Sunday touted the historic turnout during the early-voting period for the Senate runoff between Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock and Republican challenger Herschel Walker.

More than 1.85 million Georgians have voted ahead of the election Tuesday, according to data from Raffensperger’s office, including in-person turnout and absentee and military voters.

More than 1.7 million of those voters cast their ballots early in person and more than 350,000 of them voted on Friday, the last day of early voting. That’s the largest early voting day in the state’s history.

Turnout for the runoff has reached 26.4% of active Georgia voters, Raffensperger said in a news release Sunday.

Donald Trump’s continued presence on the American political scene is one of the reasons Republicans underperformed in this year’s midterm elections.

The former president’s debilitating effect on his party was perhaps no more evident than in Georgia, where Trump’s Republican nemesis Gov. Brian Kemp cruised to reelection, while his preferred Senate candidate, Herschel Walker, was forced into a runoff with Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock.

Now with the Georgia Senate runoff just two days away, those problems are clearer than ever. Trump’s unpopularity in Georgia is causing him to stay out of the state in the campaign’s final days and is part of a deeper reshaping of political alignments in America.

To understand the Trump impact on Georgia, take a look at the CNN/SSRS poll of the Senate runoff released on Friday. Trump came in with a favorable rating of just 39% and an unfavorable rating of 54% among likely voters.

Of course, with Trump no longer president, you might think these numbers wouldn’t matter. After all, President Joe Biden isn’t significantly more popular in Georgia, with a favorable rating of 41% and an unfavorable rating of 52%, according to the CNN survey.

But when you break the poll down further, you see how Trump’s unpopularity is potentially keeping voters from casting a ballot for Walker. The former football star led Warnock by 87 points among voters who didn’t have a favorable view of Biden but had a favorable opinion of Trump.

That type of margin would have been more than enough for Walker to win, if it held among all voters who view Biden unfavorably. The problem for Walker is that voters who had a favorable opinion of Trump and not one of Biden made up only 37% of the electorate in our poll.

A sizable 21% of likely Georgia voters had a favorable view of neither Biden nor Trump. This group of voters still preferred Walker to Warnock, but only by 14 points.

So in other words, there was an over 70-point difference in Walker’s margin among those who didn’t like Biden, based on whether they liked Trump or not.

Warnock’s ability to keep Walker’s margins down among those who liked neither Biden nor Trump works for him mathematically because the poll found him leading by 100 points among the 40% of likely voters who just liked Biden.

To put in perspective how unusual it is for a former president to have such a strong effect, consider the last time there was an unpopular Republican president who had recently left the White House. In a September 2010 CNN pre-election poll, Republican House candidates were still winning voters who didn’t like George W. Bush (the former president) or Barack Obama (the incumbent) by about 50 points.

If Walker was winning those who didn’t like Biden or Trump by 50 points, he’d be leading in our Georgia poll.

Read more here.

Georgia Republican Senate candidate Herschel Walker, facing renewed and growing questions about his residency in the final week of the runoff campaign, described himself during a campaign speech in January as living in Texas and said he decided to run for Georgia’s Senate seat while at his Texas “home,” according to a CNN KFile review of his campaign speeches.

Georgia Democrats have called for an investigation by state officials into Walker’s residency after CNN’s KFile reported that Walker was getting a tax break in Texas intended for a primary residence, possibly running afoul of Texas tax law and some rules for establishing Georgia residency for voting and running for office.

Earlier in the speech, Walker said he decided to run for Georgia’s Senate seat while at his Texas home after seeing the country divided.

“Everyone asks me, why did I decide to run for a Senate seat? Because to be honest with you, this is never something I ever, ever, ever thought in my life I’d ever do,” said Walker. “And that’s the honest truth. As I was sitting in my home in Texas, I was sitting in my home in Texas, and I was seeing what was going on in this country. I was seeing what was going on in this country with how they were trying to divide people.”

The Georgia Republican is heading into a runoff election against Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock on Tuesday. Walker and his campaign have so far not commented to CNN or others on the reporting of the tax break or questions about his residency.

Last month, The Atlanta-Journal Constitution reported that Georgia authorities have been urged in a complaint to investigate Walker’s residency. Georgia Democrats in a statement called for an immediate investigation of Walker’s residency, and US Rep. Nikema Williams, the chairwoman of the Democratic Party of Georgia, also asked authorities to see if Walker lied about living in Georgia.

“The Georgia Bureau of Investigations and the Georgia Attorney General’s office must immediately investigate whether Herschel Walker lied about being a Georgia resident,” Williams said.

Read more here.

Florida Democrat Maxwell Frost, the first member of Generation Z to be elected to Congress, will head to Georgia to campaign for Sen. Raphael Warnock ahead of Tuesday’s runoff election. 

“We heading to Georgia Monday & Tuesday to Get Out the Youth Vote! This election is too important to not Organize,” the congressman-elect tweeted Saturday, adding that Warnock “must win.” 

CNN exit polls showed that in the November general election last month, Warnock was able to sustain the improvements he made in the 2021 runoff election with the youngest voters. He won 68% of the 18-24 vote in the 2021 runoff, and 69% of 18-24 year-olds last month.

However, Georgia voters last month were older compared with recent elections, with those over 50 representing 59% of the electorate, a new high since 2018. The share of voters under 30, meanwhile, shrank to 11%, its lowest point since 2018.

Read more on what data from last month’s general election tells us about Georgia voters here.

A Georgia election official said Saturday the winner in Tuesday’s runoff between Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock and Republican nominee Hershel Walker might not be known on election night after record early voter turnout.

More than 1.8 million Georgians have voted so far, with about 300,000 people voting early each day last week — setting records for the largest single-day early voting turn out in state history. Early voting for the runoff ended on Friday.

“There’s obviously a lot of enthusiasm,” Sterling said. “Both Democrats and Republicans can point to the turnout models and say, ‘that’s good for us’ so nobody knows what’s going to happen.” 

A CNN poll released Friday showed Warnock with a narrow lead over Walker. 

In a final push ahead of Tuesday’s runoff, Sen. Raphael Warnock joined the AAPI Victory Fund for a rally Saturday to target Asian American voters.  

Warnock was joined by fellow Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff, actor Daniel Dae Kim, singer Eric Nam and TV host Jeannie Mai Jenkins. 

CNN exit polls from the first round in November showed that a slightly larger share of White voters and smaller shares of Black, Asian and Latino voters cast their ballots in 2022 compared with Georgia’s previous three midterm elections and runoffs.  

At the rally, Warnock commented on the renewed and growing questions about GOP opponent Herschel Walker’s residency. 

“Come Tuesday, we’re going to send him running back to Texas,” Warnock said. A CNN review of Walker’s campaign speeches found that the Republican described himself in a speech in January as living in Texas.