Why the Georgia runoff is still a key race for Democrats

A superior court judge in Georgia has ordered Cobb County to extend its deadline for accepting absentee ballots in the US Senate runoff after a lawsuit claimed that numerous voters who had applied for absentee ballots had not received them.

The court on Friday ordered Cobb County to extend the deadline to receive absentee ballots until December 9, provided the ballots are postmarked by 7 p.m. on Election Day. It also directed the county to publish a notice on its website stating that any voter who has not yet received an absentee ballot may vote in person at their assigned polling location on Election Day.

The suit, brought by the Southern Poverty Law Center and ACLU, cited specific examples of voters who had applied for absentee ballots before the November 26 deadline yet had still not received their ballots. Cobb County 

Cobb County, which incorporates a large part of Atlanta’s northern suburbs and is a heavily populated area in Northwest Georgia, has disputed allegations that ballots were not sent out in a timely manner. 

Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger, a Republican, called the court’s order a “horrible idea,” writing in a statement that “last-minute changes are unfair, lead to confusion (which just leads to more judges trying to make more last-minute changes,) and gives fodder to those who are not inclined to accept the election results.”

Voters were met with long lines and long wait times on Friday as the early voting period ended in the Senate runoff election in Georgia between Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock and Republican challenger Herschel Walker.

As of midnight Saturday, more than 1.8 million total ballots had been cast, according to data from the secretary of state’s office. More than 1.7 million of those ballots were cast in person at early voting locations around the state. 

Voting officially closed at 7 p.m. ET Friday evening, but several voting locations in metro Atlanta counties remained open to allow voters who were already in line to cast their ballots. 

Election officials touted the record-breaking numbers heading into Election Day on Tuesday. Gabriel Sterling, Georgia secretary of state’s chief operating officer, tweeted Friday that “the Georgia Voters just blew away the early vote single day record today.” 

More than 350,000 Georgians participated in early voting Friday, according to data from the secretary of state.

Despite several days this week with historically high early voting numbers, overall, the state will have far fewer pre-election voters than in the 2021 runoff, when more than 3.1 million Georgians voted by mail or in person before Election Day.

This year’s runoff period is half as long as it was when voters elected Warnock for the first time in a January 2021 special election runoff. Georgia’s Election Integrity Act of 2021 — commonly known as SB202 — significantly shortened the overall length of runoff campaigns and the early voting period for runoffs. 

The new law sets the runoff Election Day four weeks after the general election, down from the previous nine weeks. It also eliminated two of the three weeks of early voting that was previously required. Counties only had to make early in-person voting available Monday through Friday of this week, though they could opt to add a few extra days. 

The pool of new voters eligible to vote in the runoff is also smaller this year. The abbreviated four-week runoff period meant the deadline to register was much earlier too — the day before the Nov. 8 election. Voters who were not registered by Nov. 7 — before the need for a runoff was even known — are ineligible to vote in this runoff.

When SB202 was signed into law, Republican lawmakers argued the shortened schedule would benefit county election administrators. Voting rights advocates argued the law was suppressive and would most affect marginalized communities.

About 140,000 Georgians have voted by mail so far. Mail ballots must be received by the close of polls on Tuesday.

In the final undecided Senate contest of 2022, Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock of Georgia holds a narrow lead over Republican challenger Herschel Walker among those likely to vote in a runoff election Tuesday, according to a new CNN Poll conducted by SSRS.

The survey shows that Walker faces widespread questions about his honesty and suffers from a negative favorability rating, while nearly half of those who back him say their vote is more about opposition to Warnock than support for Walker. Voters’ modestly more positive views of Warnock and a firmly committed base of supporters appear to boost the incumbent in the new poll.

Overall, 52% of likely voters say they plan to support Warnock in Tuesday’s runoff and 48% pick Walker. Partisans on both sides are deeply entrenched, with nearly all Democrats (99%) behind Warnock and 95% of Republicans backing Walker. Independents break in Warnock’s favor, 61% to 36%, but make up a relatively small slice of likely voters, 17%, compared with 24% in a CNN exit poll of voters in the first round of this contest last month. (Warnock finished narrowly ahead of Walker in November but without the majority of the vote needed to avoid a runoff.)

White voters remain broadly behind Walker ahead of Tuesday’s election: 69% support him, with 30% backing Warnock, in the new poll, while Black voters likely to cast a ballot next week are near unanimous in their support for the Democrat (96% Warnock to 3% Walker). Those divides are similar to the racial split in the 2021 runoff during which Warnock initially won his seat, when 93% of Black voters backed him while 71% of White voters favored his Republican opponent, then-Sen. Kelly Loeffler, according to CNN’s exit poll.

With just days to go before Georgia’s Senate runoff between Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock and Republican Herschel Walker, heavy hitters and big dollars from both national parties are pouring into the state for a race that will determine the balance of power in the Democratic-controlled Senate next year.

If the Republican prevails, the parties will again split the Senate 50-50, with Vice President Kamala Harris providing a tie-breaking vote and Democrats the slightest possible advantage.

Democrats will control the chamber after the party’s incumbents held their ground and Pennsylvania’s John Fetterman picked up a seat held by retiring GOP Sen. Pat Toomey.

But this is still a race full of consequences.

In the short term, a Warnock victory would deliver more power to Democrats as they seek a firmer grip on the procedural life of the Senate, which could help them confirm more Biden nominees in a more expeditious manner. West Virginia Sen. Joe Manchin would also lose some of his leverage, if Majority Leader Chuck Schumer had a vote to spare, which could hold added significance given Manchin is facing reelection in 2024.

Senate Minority Whip John Thune, a South Dakota Republican, spelled out the stakes on Monday.

Thune also conceded that his party could use a morale boost after underperforming expectations in the midterms, despite narrowly gaining control of the House.

“It’d be nice to get a win on the books, and especially in a state like Georgia, where, frankly, we think we should be winning,” Thune said.

Beyond that, looking ahead to the next election in 2024, Republicans – already with a more favorable map than this year – would be better positioned to win back a majority, perhaps a significant one, if Walker can pad their numbers now.