These states have the most pre-election votes cast

In 2020, Former President Donald Trump and his allies made a prolonged effort to discredit the presidential election results in advance, spending months laying the groundwork for their false post-election claims the election was stolen. Now, in the weeks leading up to Election Day in 2022, some Republicans have been deploying similar – and similarly dishonest – rhetoric.

Pennsylvania 

Trump posted on social media on Tuesday to cast doubt on the legitimacy of the midterm election in the critical swing state of Pennsylvania. “Here we go again!” he wrote. “Rigged Election!”

Trump’s supposed evidence? An article on a right-wing news site which demonstrated no rigging. Rather, the article baselessly raised suspicion about absentee-ballot data the article did not clearly explain. 

Trump is not the only Republican trying to baselessly promote suspicion about the midterms in Pennsylvania, a state which could determine which party controls the US Senate.

After Pennsylvania’s acting elections chief, Leigh Chapman, told NBC News last week it could take “days” to complete the vote count, Republican gubernatorial candidate Doug Mastriano, who has repeatedly promoted false conspiracy theories about the 2020 election, said on a right-wing show monitored by liberal organization Media Matters for America: “That’s an attempt to have the fix in.”

It isn’t. It simply takes time to count votes – especially, as Chapman noted, because the Republican-controlled state legislature has refused to pass a no-strings-attached bill to allow counties to begin processing mail-in ballots earlier than the morning of Election Day.

Michigan

The city of Detroit, like other Democratic-dominated cities with large Black populations, has been the target of false 2020 conspiracy theories from Trump and others. And now the Republican running to be Michigan’s elections chief is already challenging the validity of tens of thousands of Detroit votes in 2022.

Less than two weeks before Election Day, Kristina Karamo, a 2020 election denier and the Republican nominee for Michigan Secretary of State, filed a lawsuit asking a court to “halt” the use of absentee ballots in Detroit if they weren’t obtained in person at a clerk’s office and declare only those ballots obtained via in-person requests can be “validly voted” in this election. The request would potentially mean the rejection of thousands of votes already cast legally by Detroit residents – in a state whose constitution gives residents the right to request absentee ballots by mail.

Karamo’s lawyer vaguely softened the request during closing arguments on Friday, The Detroit News reported. And other prominent Republicans have so far kept their distance from the lawsuit. 

Nonetheless, the suit sets the table for Karamo, who is trailing in opinion polls, to baselessly reject the legitimacy of a defeat.

Arizona

The Daily Beast reported Blake Masters, the Republican Senate candidate in a tight race in Arizona, told a story at an October event about how he can’t prove it’s not true that, if he beats Democratic incumbent Sen. Mark Kelly by 30,000 votes, unnamed people won’t just “find 40,000” for Kelly. He told a similar story at an event in June.

There is no basis for the suggestion there could be tens of thousands of fraudulent votes added to any state’s count. But Masters’ comment, like Karamo’s lawsuit, achieves the effect of many of Trump’s pre-Election Day tales in 2020: prime Republican voters to be distrustful of any outcome that doesn’t go their way.

You can read more here.

When Democrats won the House in 2018, they did it with help from a great uptick in turnout that achieved the highest voter turnout for a midterm election in more than 100 years. 

Still, half the voting eligible population didn’t take part.

This year, early voting has surged in some of the key states, but Michael McDonald, the University of Florida political scientist known for tracking early voting data, has predicted turnout would fall below 2018 levels.

McDonald cautions against relying exclusively on early voting or polls as a definitive gauge of the situation.

“To answer the question about where we are in the early vote … what you want to do is you want to take all the bits of information you can weave together and try to get a picture of where we are,” McDonald said. “So I don’t think early voting alone tells the picture just like I don’t think that polling alone tells you a definitive picture about where the election is going. “

When it comes to the current election, McDonald says early voting is especially present in specific high-profile races.

“If Democrats do lose the House, it will likely be at least partially because their voters just didn’t find a reason to vote in a state like California,” McDonald said.  

With all 435 House races, 35 Senate races and 36 governors’ races on ballots across the country, it’s hard to know where to look on Election Day to get a sense of just what kind of night it is going to be.

Here are seven races worth watching – not just for their outcomes, but for what they can tell us about the national playing field. The races are listed alphabetically.

* Connecticut’s 5th District: Connecticut is not a battleground state, but this race has become indicative of the struggles some Democratic incumbents are having in New England. If Republicans win here, it is likely a sign they are cruising to the majority nationwide.

* Michigan Governor: Polls suggest this race is Democratic Gov. Gretchen Whitmer’s to lose, but keep an eye on the margin. If she wins by low single-digits, it would suggest an overperformance by Trump-endorsed Republican Tudor Dixon, which could affect races down-ballot.

* New Hampshire Senate: After retired Army Brig. Gen. Don Bolduc became the Republican nominee earlier this fall, it appeared as though national GOP groups were giving up on the race. But the National Republican Senatorial Committee jumped back into the race and Democrats’ Senate Majority PAC added money to its ad reservation over the final week of the campaign, suggesting this is a closer contest than expected. If Bolduc manages to win, you can be almost certain Republicans will regain the majority in the Senate.

* New York 17th’s District: This is where Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney, who also happens to be the chair of House Democrats’ campaign arm, is running for reelection. Inside Elections recently moved its rating of this race to Toss-up, a sign the momentum is with Republicans. If GOP state Assemblyman Mike Lawler is able to pull off the upset, it will be doubly sweet for his party – they will pick up a seat no one expected and take out a member of Democratic leadership in the process.

* North Carolina Senate: North Carolina went for Donald Trump in 2016 and then again, more narrowly, in 2020. If Democrats manage to win this race, it would suggest they have a very real chance at holding the Senate majority as results roll in further west. If, on the other hand, GOP Rep. Ted Budd’s margin is 5 points or higher, that’s a good sign for Republican prospects.

* Oregon Governor: Like other blue enclaves throughout the country, Oregon is surprisingly competitive in this election. A win in Oregon for Republicans would be hugely symbolic – a sign they can compete anywhere in the country (at least in this election cycle) as Oregon hasn’t elected a Republican governor in almost four decades.

* Virginia’s 2nd District: If you’re looking for a bellwether district in the early part of the night, this Virginia Beach-area seat is the one for you. If Democratic Rep. Elaine Luria is able to pull out a win, the idea of a massive red wave in the House takes a hit. If State Sen. Jen Kiggans wins, however, it tells us the environment for Republicans is a good one.

You can read the full analysis here.

Democrats close their midterm election campaign Monday facing the nightmare scenario they always feared – with Republicans staging a gleeful referendum on Joe Biden’s struggling presidency and failure to tame inflation.

Hopes that Democrats could use the Supreme Court’s overturning of the right to an abortion and a flurry of legislative wins to stave off the classic midterm election rout of a party in power are now a memory. Biden faces a dark political environment because of the 40-year-high in the cost of living – and his hopes of a swift rebound next year are clouded by growing fears of a recession.

If the president’s party takes a drubbing, there will be much Democratic finger-pointing over Biden’s messaging strategy on inflation – a pernicious force that has punched holes in millions of family budgets.

On the eve of the election, Democrats risk losing control of the House of Representatives and Republicans are increasingly hopeful of a Senate majority that would leave Biden under siege as he begins his reelection bid and with ex-President Donald Trump apparently set to announce his own campaign for a White House return within days.

It’s too early for postmortems. Forty million Americans have already voted. And the uncertainty baked into modern polling means no one can be sure a red wave is coming. Democrats could still cling onto the Senate even if the House falls.

But the way each side is talking on election eve, and the swathe of blue territory – from New York to Washington state – that Democrats are defending offer a clear picture of GOP momentum. 

A nation split down the middle politically, which is united only by a sense of dissatisfaction with its trajectory, is getting into a habit of repeatedly using elections to punish the party with the most power. 

That means Democrats are most exposed this time.

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A day after an envelope containing “suspicious white powder” was received at Kari Lake’s campaign headquarters, the Arizona Republican gubernatorial nominee noted “We are living in dangerous times.”

Lake said she was not at her campaign headquarters when the mail was opened and said her staffers who were exposed to the suspicious white powder are “doing OK” and being monitored.

“We’re in dangerous times. This is not the first time we’ve been… threatened,” she said.

Lake continued: “We’ll get to the bottom of this, I really don’t want to get too far ahead of it, I want investigators to look into it and I truly want to find the people who sent this because it’s wrong that this is happening, and we’re going to track these people down.” She thanked authorities for their work responding to the situation.

Lake said her campaign was initially told the suspicious mail was being sent to Quantico for examination, “but apparently there’s a closer lab and that’s where they actually sent the substance, so we’re going to find out what it was.”

Items recovered during the investigation will be tested at a laboratory facility in Arizona, a law enforcement source familiar with the investigation told CNN. Earlier Sunday, Lake campaign spokesman Colton Duncan told CNN via text message two envelopes were confiscated by law enforcement and were “sent to professionals at Quantico for examination.”

Two days before the midterm election, Pennsylvania’s Republican Senate candidate Mehmet Oz is asking his supporters to reach across the political aisle to boost his support.

“You’re going to ask 10 people this very simple question, ‘Are you happy with where the country is headed?'” Oz said at a rally in Bethlehem, Pennsylvania.

The message to a group of largely Republicans in Northampton County was to focus their energy on getting Oz’s message out to conservative Democrats and Independents, who might be dissatisfied with the current state of Democratic leadership.

“Give people some room, because you’re going to run into some conservative Democrats and some Independents. People want to vote for us this time, but they don’t know it yet,” Oz said. “So, don’t spend your time talking to the Republicans. We’re on board. Talk to the Democrats and the Independents. You’re going to ask them this question, right? And when you ask it, be open to what their responses are.”

Oz said, if their answer to the question is no—they aren’t happy, “Tell them I am the candidate for change.”

Oz faces Lt. Gov. John Fetterman in one of the nation’s most closely watched Senate races. The Commonwealth, which offers Democrats their best chance of picking up a seat which could help them maintain control of the US Senate, pivoted from backing Trump in 2016, to Biden in 2020.

President Joe Biden stumped for New York Gov. Kathy Hochul at Sarah Lawrence College in Yonkers, New York Sunday night – just two days before the midterm elections – at a last-minute stop in a state typically safe for Democrats.

Hochul, who ascended to become the state’s first woman governor in August 2021 following then-Gov. Andrew Cuomo’s resignation, is locked in a tight race with Republican challenger Lee Zeldin, a congressman from Long Island.

The President leaned heavily into what he called the risks to democracy. He painted Hochul’s opponent as an election denier, saying he and others were “not only trying to deny your vote, they’re trying to deny your right to have your vote counted.”

Biden sought to sharpen the contrast between Hochul and Zeldin on several other fronts as well, highlighting Hochul’s “immediate action to protect patients” in the wake of the Dobbs decision overturning Roe v. Wade and painting Zeldin as “all talk” when it comes to combatting crime – an issue that has loomed large in this race.

Biden’s visit to stump for Hochul and other high profile Democrats’ recent rallies for the party’s candidates up and down the ticket underscore the worries among Democratic leaders that a potential GOP wave could extend deep into what’s been one of the country’s bluest states. No Republican has won statewide here since George Pataki secured a third term as governor in 2002.

In remarks introducing Biden on Sunday, Hochul addressed questions about why she and other candidates need late-campaign boosts from the President.

Arkansas Sen. Tom Cotton has decided to forgo a 2024 campaign for the Republican presidential nomination, three sources familiar with the matter tell CNN. 

Cotton is the first high-profile Republican to remove himself from a wide list of rumored GOP presidential hopefuls. Former President Donald Trump appears to be on the brink of announcing. 

One of the sources familiar with the matter said Cotton only recently came to the decision following months of consultation with donors, aides, allies and his own family. The Arkansas Republican has told donors he ultimately did not want to be away from his two young sons, who are 5 and 7 years old, according to a second source. 

Like several other rumored GOP contenders, Cotton had recently made trips to Iowa and New Hampshire – two of the earliest voting states in the GOP primary. The Afghanistan and Iraq War veteran was seen by some as a strong possible contender from the party’s national security wing after having positioned himself as one of the Senate’s biggest China hawks. One of the sources said Cotton has made clear to donors that he remains open to serving in a future Republican administration.

Cotton’s 2024 decision was first reported by Politico on Sunday. 

Gov. Ron DeSantis stuck to the script Sunday afternoon and made no mention of Donald Trump a day after the former president took a swipe at DeSantis’ 2024 ambitions.

In the first of three planned events Sunday, and with a Trump rally underway across the state in Miami, DeSantis delivered virtually the same speech he has made in communities across Florida in the final weeks of his race for reelection.

That included steering clear of Trump, who called the Florida leader “Ron DeSanctimonious” during a rally Saturday night in Pennsylvania. During that event, Trump read poll numbers that he said establish him as the party favorite if he runs for president again. DeSantis was a distant second.

Sounding hoarse amid his eighth of 13 public events leading up to Election Day, DeSantis also rarely mentioned his opponent, Democrat Charlie Crist, except to call him a “tired, old, worn-out donkey” he planned to put “out to pasture one last time.” 

DeSantis described himself as a fighter who stood up against medical experts and criticism during the pandemic to reopen the state and ban coronavirus vaccine mandates.

The biggest cheers DeSantis received came when he recounted how he arranged for Florida to send nearly 50 migrants from Texas to Martha’s Vineyard, a stunt that has faced intense scrutiny and legal challenges. 

DeSantis has two more events planned Sunday evening on Florida’s west coast.