These states have the most pre-election votes cast

Two days before the midterm election, Pennsylvania’s Republican Senate candidate Mehmet Oz is asking his supporters to reach across the political aisle to boost his support.

“You’re going to ask 10 people this very simple question, ‘Are you happy with where the country is headed?'” Oz said at a rally in Bethlehem, Pennsylvania.

The message to a group of largely Republicans in Northampton County was to focus their energy on getting Oz’s message out to conservative Democrats and Independents, who might be dissatisfied with the current state of Democratic leadership.

“Give people some room, because you’re going to run into some conservative Democrats and some Independents. People want to vote for us this time, but they don’t know it yet,” Oz said. “So, don’t spend your time talking to the Republicans. We’re on board. Talk to the Democrats and the Independents. You’re going to ask them this question, right? And when you ask it, be open to what their responses are.”

Oz said, if their answer to the question is no—they aren’t happy, “Tell them I am the candidate for change.”

Oz faces Lt. Gov. John Fetterman in one of the nation’s most closely watched Senate races. The Commonwealth, which offers Democrats their best chance of picking up a seat which could help them maintain control of the US Senate, pivoted from backing Trump in 2016, to Biden in 2020.

President Joe Biden stumped for New York Gov. Kathy Hochul at Sarah Lawrence College in Yonkers, New York Sunday night – just two days before the midterm elections – at a last-minute stop in a state typically safe for Democrats.

Hochul, who ascended to become the state’s first woman governor in August 2021 following then-Gov. Andrew Cuomo’s resignation, is locked in a tight race with Republican challenger Lee Zeldin, a congressman from Long Island.

The President leaned heavily into what he called the risks to democracy. He painted Hochul’s opponent as an election denier, saying he and others were “not only trying to deny your vote, they’re trying to deny your right to have your vote counted.”

Biden sought to sharpen the contrast between Hochul and Zeldin on several other fronts as well, highlighting Hochul’s “immediate action to protect patients” in the wake of the Dobbs decision overturning Roe v. Wade and painting Zeldin as “all talk” when it comes to combatting crime – an issue that has loomed large in this race.

Biden’s visit to stump for Hochul and other high profile Democrats’ recent rallies for the party’s candidates up and down the ticket underscore the worries among Democratic leaders that a potential GOP wave could extend deep into what’s been one of the country’s bluest states. No Republican has won statewide here since George Pataki secured a third term as governor in 2002.

In remarks introducing Biden on Sunday, Hochul addressed questions about why she and other candidates need late-campaign boosts from the President.

Arkansas Sen. Tom Cotton has decided to forgo a 2024 campaign for the Republican presidential nomination, three sources familiar with the matter tell CNN. 

Cotton is the first high-profile Republican to remove himself from a wide list of rumored GOP presidential hopefuls. Former President Donald Trump appears to be on the brink of announcing. 

One of the sources familiar with the matter said Cotton only recently came to the decision following months of consultation with donors, aides, allies and his own family. The Arkansas Republican has told donors he ultimately did not want to be away from his two young sons, who are 5 and 7 years old, according to a second source. 

Like several other rumored GOP contenders, Cotton had recently made trips to Iowa and New Hampshire – two of the earliest voting states in the GOP primary. The Afghanistan and Iraq War veteran was seen by some as a strong possible contender from the party’s national security wing after having positioned himself as one of the Senate’s biggest China hawks. One of the sources said Cotton has made clear to donors that he remains open to serving in a future Republican administration.

Cotton’s 2024 decision was first reported by Politico on Sunday. 

Gov. Ron DeSantis stuck to the script Sunday afternoon and made no mention of Donald Trump a day after the former president took a swipe at DeSantis’ 2024 ambitions.

In the first of three planned events Sunday, and with a Trump rally underway across the state in Miami, DeSantis delivered virtually the same speech he has made in communities across Florida in the final weeks of his race for reelection.

That included steering clear of Trump, who called the Florida leader “Ron DeSanctimonious” during a rally Saturday night in Pennsylvania. During that event, Trump read poll numbers that he said establish him as the party favorite if he runs for president again. DeSantis was a distant second.

Sounding hoarse amid his eighth of 13 public events leading up to Election Day, DeSantis also rarely mentioned his opponent, Democrat Charlie Crist, except to call him a “tired, old, worn-out donkey” he planned to put “out to pasture one last time.” 

DeSantis described himself as a fighter who stood up against medical experts and criticism during the pandemic to reopen the state and ban coronavirus vaccine mandates.

The biggest cheers DeSantis received came when he recounted how he arranged for Florida to send nearly 50 migrants from Texas to Martha’s Vineyard, a stunt that has faced intense scrutiny and legal challenges. 

DeSantis has two more events planned Sunday evening on Florida’s west coast.

This midterm election, the balance of power for both chambers of Congress are on the line. This could influence how easy it is for either political party to get things done during the legislative session. 

So, with just days until Tuesday’s Election Day, here are the answers to some basic questions a lot of people might be asking: 

What is the balance of power? 

Political parties have more power when they control the House or Senate by winning a majority of the seats in that chamber. The party in power controls committees that write legislation and decides which measures will get a vote on the floor. In the House, the party with at least 218 seats has the majority and, assuming it can unite behind one candidate, selects the Speaker of the House. In the Senate, the party with 51 votes has the majority. 

Why are all 435 House members up for election every two years? 

The House of Representatives is the piece of the federal government that is closest to the people. Putting House members up for election every two years allows voters more direct and immediate control of the direction of their government. 

What is a “flipped seat” or “pickup”? 

A flipped seat or pickup is one in the House or Senate that voters take from one party and entrust to the other party. Because of redistricting, nine House seats – including seven new seats where there is no incumbent and two where two incumbents are running against each other – cannot be classified as pickups for either party. 

Will we know who wins on Election Day? 

Don’t count on final answers in every race on election night. With so many people voting early and by mail and so many close elections, there’s a good chance that it will take days or weeks to figure out who won some races. The margins of power in both the House and Senate are close enough that it could take days to know who will have a majority of seats.

It’s been months since President Joe Biden has actually set foot in Georgia, but that hasn’t kept his name — and the policies of his administration — out of the pivotal Senate contest in the state.

Republican challenger Herschel Walker invoked Biden’s name again and again during a Sunday afternoon campaign stop northwest of Atlanta, where Walker sought to link Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock to the White House and blame him for inflation and other challenges weighing on the President’s popularity.

A day after Georgia defeated Tennessee 27-13 in a marquee SEC game, Walker used one football metaphor after another as he asked Republican voters to support him on Tuesday.

“I remember my offensive lineman used to tell me, Herschel, follow me, I’ll take you to the promised land,” Walker told a few hundred supporters gathered in a parking lot in Hiram, Georgia. “So I’m going to tell all of you to vote for me and we’re all going to get to the promised land.”

Democratic Rep. Karen Bass and real estate developer Rick Caruso will be on the ticket for the race for Los Angeles mayor, in a contest that has been shaped by issues of crime and homelessness. 

No candidate took the majority in California’s top-two primary election, which pushed Bass and Caruso, the top two finishers, to Tuesday’s election. If elected, Bass would be the first woman and the first Black woman to lead America’s second-largest city. 

Bass served in the California State Assembly prior to her time in Congress. In 2008, she made history as the first Black woman to serve as speaker of a state legislature, according to her congressional biography. 

The six-term congresswoman currently represents California’s 37th District. She has championed efforts to shape public policy in areas like child welfare, foster care and prison reform. She chaired the Congressional Black Caucus for two years and helped to lead policing overhaul efforts after the deaths of Breonna Taylor and George Floyd in 2020. 

The longtime lawmaker was one of several contenders on President Biden’s running mate shortlist during the 2020 campaign. Though Biden ultimately selected Kamala Harris as his vice president, his consideration of Bass threw her name into the national spotlight. Bass earned the endorsement of House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, another California Democrat, in the mayoral race. 

In her campaign for mayor, Bass has forged a coalition of White progressives and Black voters and has sought to expand on that by engaging Latino voters and other groups across Los Angeles. She’s emphasized the depth of her policy experience and her reputation as collaborative listener and legislator. 

She’s highlighted her early work as a physician assistant in the emergency room and her experience bringing together Black and Latino community organizers in South Los Angeles in the early 1990s to address the root causes of crime and the crack epidemic through the nonprofit she founded, Community Coalition. She has also pointed to her role as a dealmaker when she led the California State Assembly after the 2008 financial crisis – making budget decisions that earned her a John F. Kennedy Profile in Courage Award in 2010. 

For 72-year-old Tom Spehert of Greendale, Wisconsin, the country is on the line this midterms election. 

Spehert, who hosted a canvas launch for Democratic Senate Candidate Mandela Barnes and the state party at his home Saturday, told CNN he’s concerned that Democrats will lose a crucial safeguard against Republicans if Democratic Gov. Tony Evers loses reelection Tuesday or if Democrats lose control of the House and Senate.

Spehert, who met his wife while volunteering for his local Democratic party in the 60s, said he’s concerned about the threat of increased violent rhetoric in politics.

“Things are a lot more tense, okay? Some of the fun has gone out of things, because we heard what happened to Nancy Pelosi’s husband, you know?” he said.

“Although, I have to say that over the years, people always say, ‘How can you put these signs out in front of your house,’ and ‘Are you afraid to put bumper stickers on your car?’ I just said that if they want to wreck my house, they want to wreck my bumper stickers, fine — this is my right to do this,” he said.

The Wisconsin Democrat, who voted early, was excited to cast his ballot for Barnes, whom he’s known for years.

“I’m an old White guy, okay, alright? End of story. Mandela is the future of the party, we need to get young people in and he just, you know, I just think he’s the guy. He’s young, he’s energetic, we have the same ideals and I’m behind him 100%,” Spehert told CNN.

Political buffs have been saying for weeks that the race for Senate control will come down to three or four states: Georgia, Nevada and Pennsylvania, with Arizona sometimes thrown in. But is that list too limited?

Political history — and a spat of late spending in the race — suggests that we should widen our focus: Republicans have a real chance at flipping Democratic Sen. Maggie Hassan’s seat in New Hampshire.

Setting the scene: The background for the race is simple. Hassan won by 0.1 points in 2016. This year, Democrats spent money during the Republican primary to successfully get their preferred opponent, Don Bolduc, nominated. He has gone back and forth on whether President Joe Biden legitimately won the 2020 election.

Warning signs for Hassan: New Hampshire is exactly the type of seat you might expect Republicans to be competitive in, given the polling we’ve seen nationally.

A CNN/SSRS poll published this week put Republicans ahead by four points on the generic congressional ballot. That’s an 8-point shift toward the Republicans from the final 2020 presidential result.

An 8-point shift in New Hampshire from the 2020 result would put the seat in play. In 2020, Democrats won the presidential vote by seven points in New Hampshire.

What would it mean for the Senate? One view is that New Hampshire would only be won by Republicans if it’s a blowout election across the country. They won’t win it if the election nationwide is close.

Another view is that the polling averages in Arizona (where most surveys have Democratic Sen. Mark Kelly ahead) and New Hampshire look pretty similar.

The states are in different parts of the country and demographically distinct. Sometimes polling errors are concentrated regionally and demographically. It’s plausible that a polling error that affects New Hampshire wouldn’t affect Arizona the same way. And in such a case, Republicans could win New Hampshire while not winning Arizona.

Read the full analysis here.