UK has a clear front-runner in race to be new prime minister

Former Home Secretary Priti Patel has backed Rishi Sunak in the race to become Prime Minister, switching her support from Boris Johnson after the former leader pulled out.

“In these difficult times for our country we must unite by putting public service first and work together. We care about our country and with the enormous challenges upon us we must put political differences aside to give @RishiSunak the best chance of succeeding,” Patel tweeted.

It’s a significant endorsement that shows Sunak is pulling Johnson supporters into his camp as he looks set to clinch the contest – and a big letdown for Penny Mordaunt, who will have hoped to seize some high-profile Johnson backers on Monday.

Michael Gove, another ex-Cabinet member who backed Sunak during the summer contest, also tweeted in support of Sunak on Monday morning.

Allies of Boris Johnson, who resigned in disgrace after months of scandal wrecked his reputation, started clamoring for his return in the wake of Liz Truss’s resignation last week, and the ex-PM flew back from a Caribbean holiday to court favor among his colleagues.

But that effort backfired. Johnson backed out of the contest on Sunday evening, after a weekend of reported meetings with the other contestants.

In a characteristically hubristic statement, Johnson claimed he had enough support to run and insisted there was “a very good chance” he would win the competition. But he said he had concluded that running “would simply not be the right thing to do,” because he wouldn’t be able to govern effectively without the support of a majority of MPs.

Whether those claims are accurate is unclear. Johnson’s earlier claim that he had 100 MPs behind him was met with skepticism from Sunak’s supporters, given Johnson’s historically economical relationship with the truth and the fact that only around half that number had publicly backed him.

Either way, it marks a major victory for Sunak. The pair worked together as prime minister and chancellor throughout the pandemic, but became political arch-rivals after Sunak quit Johnson’s government, sparking its downfall. The split within the party between allies of Johnson and Sunak has yet to be mended, leaving the Tories deeply divided as they prepare to welcome a new leader.

While Johnson has some ardent supporters in the party — many of whom believe he is the best electoral campaigner the Conservatives have — his return would likely have brought more chaos to government. Johnson is under investigation by a parliamentary committee over whether he misled Parliament about pandemic-era parties, and he faces being suspended from the Commons if found guilty.

Still, it seems unlikely that Johnson’s anticlimactic withdrawal will mark his final departure from British politics. His statement bore flashes of bitterness at Sunak and Penny Mourdant for failing to “come together in the national interest” — perhaps a coded admission that neither was willing to stand aside for Johnson or offer him a way back into government.

If Sunak becomes leader, he must therefore accept that Boris Johnson’s shadow looms large over his party. By choosing a third different leader since the last general election, the opposition Labour Party will demand that Sunak — or Mourdant — seek a new mandate by calling a fresh national vote. That argument has been boosted by many of Johnson’s supporters, who spent the weekend telling reporters he was the only leadership hopeful with a public mandate. 

A new British Prime Minister could be announced at 2 p.m. (9 a.m. ET).

That will be the case if only Rishi Sunak is able to secure the support of 100 MPs in the Conservative Party, leaving him unopposed in the contest.

If Penny Mourdant joins him on the ballot, there will be an indicative vote among lawmakers later on Monday and the process would then move to party members.

But the party is keen to avoid another divisive contest, so if Mordaunt trails Sunak by some distance among MPs, she could be expected to stand down and clear the runway for Sunak.

It means that news of Britain’s new leader could be announced at any time today, or later in the week.

It feels like just last month that a new prime minister was thrust upon British citizens, promising to bring their party and the country together following the humiliating resignation of their predecessor. 

And, in fact, it was. Liz Truss was chosen as the Conservative Party leader — and therefore the new occupant of 10 Downing Street — on September 6, after Boris Johnson was forced to call time on his scandal-plagued premiership. But Truss’s catastrophic tenure ended in just six weeks, and the wounded Conservatives are searching once again for a new leader while an unimpressed nation watches on.

Rishi Sunak is the frontrunner to become the UK’s third prime minister of the fall, and its fifth in six years. He came second to Truss during the previous contest, but his repeated warnings about her economic plan were proven accurate in record time and he has collected a healthy number of backers within the party.

A fast-tracked process could see a winner crowned on Monday. Entrants must secure the backing of 100 Conservative MPs to be placed on the ballot, a hurdle that Sunak has easily passed already. If two people cross the threshold, there will be an indicative vote by MPs and then, later this week, Tory members will have their say.

Sunak’s only competition is Cabinet member Penny Mordaunt, who came third during the summer. But Mourdant has failed to seize much momentum in the contest and could be pressured to pull out, either before the MPs vote or after, if she is unable to find some today.

In a whirlwind few days of political maneuvering, Sunak has already seen off the competition of his political rival Boris Johnson, who had been attempting to stage a remarkable political comeback mere weeks after his resignation. After days of speculation Johnson pulled out of the race on Sunday, insisting he had enough MPs behind him to proceed but saying he did not wish to lead a divided party.

That task will instead fall to whoever wins this week. But the next prime minister must also take control a country mired in economic gloom, and resist growing calls to seek a fresh mandate by calling a general election.

Truss’s fiscal agenda spooked markets and damaged the value of the pound, while a cost-of-living crisis has left widened inequality and left families unable to make ends meet. It’s fair to say that the unending drama at the top of the Conservative Party has left voters wary and threatened Britain’s reputation around the world.

The country’s next leader will promise to end that chaos — but it won’t be easy.