Analysis: Xi Jinping is ruling inside of an echo chamber

Hu Jintao is assisted at his seat during the closing ceremony of the 20th Party Congress in Beijing on October 22.

Xi Jinping unveiled his top leadership team today, filling it with close allies from his inner circle — and sidelining those outside his political orbit.

But a different figure took the spotlight yesterday, at the end of the 20th Party Congress — former top leader Hu Jintao, Xi’s predecessor, who was unexpectedly led out of the room during the closing ceremony.

Hu, 79, was seated directly next to Xi on stage when he was approached by two men. They spoke briefly, with Hu appearing initially reluctant. Hu eventually stood, escorted by the two men from his seat, with one holding his arm.

On his way out, Hu was seen to gesture to Xi and say something to the leader. He then patted Premier Li Keqiang — an ally and former protege of Hu — on his shoulder. Both Xi and Li appear to have nodded; it was not clear if Xi spoke.

“We really have not seen any kind of disruption to the proceedings like this pretty much ever, as far as I can recall,” said Victor Shih, an expert on elite Chinese politics at the University of California San Diego.

The circumstances around his departure were not immediately clear, and CNN was censored on air in China when reporting on Hu’s exit.

The dramatic moment has not been reported in state-run Chinese-language media or discussed on Chinese social media, where such conversation is highly-restricted — but it set off a firestorm of speculation overseas, with some analysts suggesting it could be a power play on Xi’s part.

Hu held the role of China’s top leader from 2003 to 2013, presiding over a comparably more open and economically integrated era. Hu oversaw China’s landmark 2008 Beijing Olympic Games and a decade of double-digit economic growth.

Hu was never as powerful as Xi is now — owing in no small part to what is believed to be the balancing influence of multiple party factions and party elders, including his predecessor Jiang Zemin.

Hu was associated with a faction connected to the Communist Youth League, a grouping whose influence has diminished considerably in recent years during Xi’s rule.

State media breaks silence: On Saturday night, China’s state-run news agency Xinhua wrote on its English-language Twitter account that Hu “insisted on attending the closing session of the Party’s 20th National Congress, despite the fact that he has been taking time to recuperate recently.”

“When he was not feeling well during the session, his staff, for his health, accompanied him to a room next to the meeting venue for a rest. Now, he is much better,” Xinhua wrote.

Twitter is banned in China. To date, Xinhua has not posted the statement on their website or Chinese-language social media.

And many experts remain doubtful. Shih pointed out after Hu cast his vote for the new lineup of the Central Committee, he had sat down “in a pretty stable manner” — whereas if he’d been feeling ill, staff could have “whisked him away and given him medical care” right after the vote.

Xi Jinping meets the media following the 20th Party Congress in Beijing on Sunday.

Today’s unveiling of the Politburo and its smaller Standing Committee — two of the Communist Party’s major leadership bodies — sends a clear message about who’s ultimately in charge, experts say.

“China is not a democracy, and as we have seen throughout the proceedings at the Party Congress, only one man’s opinion matters,” said Victor Shih, an expert on elite Chinese politics at the University of California San Diego.

He pointed to several newly-appointed figures, who are close allies of Xi Jinping despite not having much experience working in the central government.

“These are people who know (Xi) very well, whom he trusts a great deal, and they are chosen for these top-level positions because of that,” Shih said. “So their job performance, regardless of what the international media think of it, regardless of even what a lot of Chinese people think of, is really is quite secondary here.”

Xi in power, again: Xi formally stepped into his third term in power, breaking with precedent as his grip on power tightens.

“By breaking with the two-term norm … I think Xi Jinping is setting himself up for a lifetime tenure,” said Shih.

He added that though this paves the way for Xi in office in the coming years, it could bring instability later as the 69-year-old leader ages. “We all age, we all get old — the sense of uncertainty is going to build,” Shih said. Each time Xi disappears from public view for more than a week or two, “there are going to be all kinds of rumors,” as well as market instability, he added.

New members of the Politburo Standing Committee arrive at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing on Sunday.

During Xi Jinping’s speech at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing today, he attempted to paint a picture of an open China willing to collaborate with the world — in stark contrast to the country’s growing isolation in recent years.

“China cannot develop in isolation from the world, and the world also needs China for its development,” Xi said, adding that China had rapidly developed its economy and achieved “social stability” due to decades of efforts in “reform and opening up.”

“China’s door to the world will only get wider,” he said. “We will stay committed to comprehensively deepening reform and opening up, promoting high-quality development, and creating more opportunities for the world through our own development.”

Covid isolation: But whether that pledge will be carried out in reality remains to be seen, with China having closed to the world throughout the pandemic.

China shut its borders in early 2020 to keep out the virus, and they remain largely shut today even as much of the world adapts to live with Covid. Reflecting the country’s inward turn, Xi himself didn’t leave the mainland for almost 900 days — until he paid a visit to Hong Kong, a Chinese special administrative region.

And with Xi defending zero-Covid during the 20th Party Congress last Sunday, saying it had “protected people’s lives,” it seems the policy is here to stay.

Insular mentality: But this isolation is also reflected in parts of the country’s national psyche — a broader shift that has been years in the making.

Since taking office in late 2012, Xi has repeatedly warned against the “infiltration” of Western values such as democracy, press freedom and judicial independence. He has clamped down on foreign NGOs, churches, as well as Western textbooks — all seen as vehicles for undue foreign influence.

That has fueled a growing strand of narrow-minded nationalism, which casts suspicion on any foreign ties and views feminism, the LGBTQ movement, and even environmentalism as stooges of Western influence designed to undermine China.

Read more here:

A Evergrande Group Royal Peak residential development, photographed in Beijing on July 29.

In recent history, no country has modernized as rapidly as China. The Communist Party claims its leadership helped lift hundreds of millions out of poverty, turning backwater villages into stunning megacities.

But that growth miracle has slowed. And many longstanding challenges in China’s economy have only been exacerbated by Xi Jinping’s policies.

Xi has made it his mission to strengthen the party and its control over business and society. He unleashed a crackdown on the once-vibrant private sector that’s led to mass layoffs. Beijing claims the tougher regulations restrict overly powerful corporations and protect consumers, but the measures have suffocated private businesses, sending chills through the economy and sparking fears about future innovation.

Collapsing housing sector: Beijing started clamping down on easy credit for property firms in 2020, which led to cash crunches and defaults for many developers, including giant conglomerate Evergrande. Housing projects have stalled and desperate homebuyers across the country are refusing to pay mortgages on unfinished homes. Disruptions in the property sector have an outsized impact on China’s broader economy, as it accounts for as much as 30% of the country’s GDP.

The toll of zero-Covid: But during Xi’s leadership, nothing has rocked China’s economy and society as much as zero-Covid. In year three of the pandemic, China has clung to the harsh policy, which relies on mass testing, extensive quarantines and snap lockdowns to stamp out infections at all costs, even as the rest of the world has learned to live with the virus.

The country continues to lock down entire cities over a handful of infections, while sending all positive cases and close contacts to government quarantine facilities. Lining up for Covid tests and scanning a tracking health code to enter any public space have become normalized.

Beijing argues the policy has prevented China from spiraling into a health care disaster like the rest of the world — but zero-Covid is wielded at enormous and growing costs.

Read the full analysis here.

Hu Chunhua at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing on March, 2021.

China’s new leadership bodies — the 205-member Central Committee, 24-member Politburo, and 7-member Standing Committee — have now all been revealed, with Xi Jinping at the helm surrounded by staunch loyalists.

A few promotions included high-ranking officials that observers had speculated were top contenders ahead of the unveiling. But there are also some shock absences — names that have conspicuously disappeared from the roster as Xi gathered his allies close and sidelined others.

Hu Chunhua, one of China’s vice premiers, was once widely viewed as a candidate for top leadership — but the 59-year-old is now no longer listed as a Politburo member.

He was a protege of former Chinese leader Hu Jintao, Xi’s predecessor, who was unexpectedly led out of the room on Saturday at the closing ceremony of the 20th Party Congress.

Afterward, state-run news agency Xinhua said on its English-language Twitter — which is blocked in China — that Hu Jintao had been removed for “health” reasons. The incident has not been reported in state-run Chinese-language media or discussed on Chinese social media, where such conversation is highly restricted.

Hu Chunhua is not among Xi’s close circle. Despite widespread speculation about his potential ascension in 2017, he was denied a promotion into the Politburo Standing Committee, stalling his rise — and now, he’s out of the wider Politburo as well.

Chen Quanguo, the former party secretary of China’s far western Xinjiang region, was also missing from the Central Committee roster.

He is among those sanctioned by the US Trump administration for their alleged involvement in human rights abuses in the Xinjiang region, where Uyghur Muslims and other minority groups have been detained and tortured.

In a statement at the time, then-State Secretary Mike Pompeo said that Chen “oversaw extensive abuses in Tibetan areas, using many of the same horrific practices and policies CCP officials currently employ in Xinjiang.”

It has taken just a handful of years for Chinese leader Xi Jinping to make good on his promise of transforming the People’s Liberation Army.

In 2015, three years after he assumed leadership of the Chinese Communist Party, Xi undertook a sweeping project to turn the PLA into a “world-class fighting force” that would be a peer to the US military.

The deadline he set for that milestone was 2049, yet just seven years on and he is already far along the path to realizing his dream.

Massive military: China now boasts the world’s largest navy, with some of the newest and most powerful warships afloat; an air force with stealth fighter jets and a stealth bomber expected soon; and a rocket force bristling with new missiles that give it a reach unmatched in Asia.

But as Russia’s faltering invasion of Ukraine shows, even the largest, most formidable seeming militaries have Achilles heels that can be exploited by smaller, savvier forces.

What should be even more worrying for Xi, as he begins a third term as both party leader and supreme commander of the Chinese military following this week’s 20th Party Congres, is that many analysts see parallels between the problems dogging Moscow in Ukraine and the potential weak spots that remain in the PLA, writes CNN’s Brad Lendon.

Read the full analysis here:

In the Party Congress report released earlier this week, Xi Jinping reiterated his goal to make China a “medium developed country” by 2035. To achieve this, the country’s real GDP growth needs to average around 4.7% a year from 2021 to 2035, according to analysts at UBS.

But that could be “quite challenging,” they noted, adding they expect China’s potential growth to average between 4% to 4.5% a year this decade, and fall lower after 2030.

The reason for this pessimism: China’s economy faces significant challenges, including a property downturn, an aging population, the ongoing impact of xi’s own stringent Covid restrictions and worsening US-China relations.

Xi is also big on state intervention in key industries, which could hamper productivity, analysts fear. 

“Xi sees the survival of the Party dependent on a strengthened party-state, re-centralized power and global influence,” said Sonja Opper, a professor at Bocconi University and an expert in the Chinese economy.

“An implicit assumption is that the country is ready to return to increased state ownership and control, a strategy that is likely to dampen productivity, creativity, and innovation in the medium- and long-term,” she said.

Anti-Xi posters on a notice board at a university campus in London.

A rare, bold public protest against China’s top leader Xi Jinping in Beijing earlier this month has resonated far beyond the Chinese capital, sparking acts of solidarity from Chinese nationals inside the country and across the globe.

The protest, which saw a banner hung from Beijing’s Sitong Bridge denouncing Xi as a “dictator” and “national traitor” and calling for his removal, was swiftly ended by police and all mentions of it wiped from the Chinese internet.

But over the past week, as party elites gathered in Beijing, anti-Xi slogans echoing the Beijing protest have popped up in a growing number of Chinese cities and hundreds of universities worldwide.

In China, the slogans were scrawled on walls and doors in public bathrooms – one of the last places spared the watchful eyes of the country’s ubiquitous surveillance cameras.

Overseas, many anti-Xi posters were put up by Chinese students, who have long learned to keep their critical political views to themselves due to a culture of fear.

Under Xi, the party has ramped up surveillance and control of the Chinese diaspora, intimidating and harassing those who dare to speak out and threatening their families back home.

Read the full story here.

As Xi Jinping revealed his top leadership team, he also laid out his ambitions for China and reiterated his signature goal for the “rejuvenation of the Chinese nation” — often called the “Chinese dream.”

“On the road ahead, no matter high winds, choppy waters, or even dangerous storms, the people will always be our most solid support and strongest confidence,” he said — adding, “The world today faces unprecedented challenges.”

In decades past, when addressing China’s Party Congress, previous leaders had stressed how China was in a “period of important strategic opportunity,” indicating the country was stable and the focus should be on economic growth. But this year, Xi opted not to use that phrase.

A combative China: CNN International Correspondent Selina Wang said Xi’s message reflects his approach — to tackle things on a “war footing.”

“It’s about struggles, it’s about combating these dangerous storms ahead,” she added — which include both domestic difficulties such as an economic slowdown and ongoing Covid disruptions, and international tensions as China adopts a more assertive stance on the world stage.

“On the foreign policy front, in Xi’s third term and beyond, we should expect to see a more aggressive China. Increasingly, the framing from state media and propaganda is that the West and America is … trying to contain China,” said Wang. “So now the focus is, China needs to stand strong against that external force seeking to undermine China.”

Watch:

Xi Jinping gestures at an event to introduce new members of the Politburo Standing Committee in Beijing on Sunday.

The lineup of the new seven person Politburo Standing Committee is “the latest affirmation of Xi’s absolute power now over the party, and therefore over this nation of 1.4 billion people,” said CNN Beijing Bureau Chief Steven Jiang.

It indicated that the “old rules” surrounding party leadership — such as succession plans or promotion criteria — “no longer apply,” he added.

Xi himself began straying from precedent in 2018 when he eliminated term limits for the state role of President. Xi is the head of the party, military and state. His real power comes from his capacity as the General Secretary of the ruling Chinese Communist Party, which also controls the military – not from his largely ceremonial role as President of China.  

There was also a long-standing unwritten rule that top officials at the age of 68 or over would retire at the Party Congress — but several officials under that age limit are now set to retire.

New top leaders: The lineup of the seven-member elite Standing Committee, Xi’s top leadership team, has just been revealed — with four new members along with three incumbents.

The four new members “have all worked very closely with Xi Jinping, either in the provinces in Fujian and Zhejiang, or they were or are still his chief of staff or chief secretary,” said Jiang. “They are really the kind of people Xi Jinping trusts the most, and they are really in the innermost circle of his orbit of power.

Previously, promotions within the party were “based on a combination of factors” including their skills and level of experience — but this new lineup suggests this does “not seem to be the case anymore,” Jiang added.

Li Qiang, the next Premier and the second-highest ranking position in China after Xi, has not served as a vice-premier or worked in the central government in any capacity — unlike current Premier Li Keqiang and his predecessors.

Watch:

The new seven-member Politburo Standing Committee in Beijing on Sunday.

The Communist Party’s new Politburo — the group from which its top seven person Standing Committee is drawn from — has no female members for the first time in at least 25 years.

The last Politburo group had included one woman, but there are no women listed in the new lineup.

The last time there were no women among the full Politburo members was in 1997, at the 15th Party Congress — though there was one female alternate member, who could attend the meetings but could not vote.

The Politburo has shrank slightly, from the previous 25 members to 24. The members, who take important roles in the government, are typically men from China’s dominant ethnic Han majority.

“I think this is really quite tragic because, of course, we know (there are) a lot of very capable women in China. Even in the party, there are a lot a very capable women cadres — yet, at every level, they are marginalized,” said Victor Shih, an expert on elite Chinese politics at the University of California San Diego.

“Occasionally, a few will break through the ranks, so to speak, and rise to senior-level positions. But they remain very, very rare.”

He added that this could have a “long-lasting impact on gender equality in the party,” with no examples of female leaders at the top and fewer women to help younger members advance in their careers.

Hierarchy of power: There are several rungs in the Communist Party leadership, starting with the main leadership body, the 205-member Central Committee.

This Committee then appoints the Politburo — with typically five to nine men within that group making up the smaller Standing Committee, the apex of power.

No woman has ever been selected for the Standing Committee.

Watch the segment:

Editor’s Note: Ian Johnson is the Stephen A. Schwarzman senior fellow for China Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations. The views expressed in this commentary are his own.

Aircraft of the Eastern Theater Command of the People’s Liberation Army conduct a joint combat training exercises around the Taiwan Island on August 7.

Chinese leader Xi Jinping norm-busting third term in power will play out in important ways — with global implications.

Continued tension in foreign policy: Under Xi, China massively built up its military presence in the South China Sea, constructed military bases in South Asia and Africa, and instructed its diplomats to use very blunt, aggressive language in dealing with other countries – something known as “wolf warrior” diplomacy.

The Taiwan problem: China also took a new, harder-line approach toward the self-governing island. Unification with Taiwan is now described as “indispensable” for Xi’s key overarching policy goal of “the rejuvenation of the Chinese nation.” That likely means more tensions with democratic countries over Taiwan and an increased threat of Chinese invasion.

Economic slowdown: Xi’s government has initiated few market-oriented reforms, leaving huge swaths of the economy still in state hands. That’s contributed to slowing economic growth during his decade in power and growing youth unemployment.

Over the past few decades, one thing that the world economy could count on was strong Chinese economic growth. That may no longer be the case.

Political uncertainty: This uncertainty is rearing its head for the first time in decades. Even though former leader Deng Xiaoping’s system of centralized power and term limits — introduced in the 1990s — lasted only a generation, it did give China a period of political stability that it hadn’t enjoyed in more than a century.

Repression and decline: As Xi ages and further tightens his grip, his circle of friends and advisors will inevitably shrink, as will his ability to process new information and new ideas. The leadership around Xi could remain unwilling to engage in economic reforms or allow the sort of freewheeling intellectual life that in previous decades had allowed China to flourish.

Instead, repression is likely to continue, not only for parts of the country with large minority population, such as Xinjiang, but in the country’s ethnic Chinese heartland.

Read the full op-ed here.

From left, Zhao Leji and Wang Huning.

Zhao Leji, current head of the party’s powerful anti-corruption body — which is responsible for implementing Xi’s sweeping crackdown on graft, with political enemies often targeted — is expected to head China’s National People’s Congress, the country’s legislature.

The promotion would place him as the third-highest ranking position in the Standing Committee, China’s top decision-making body. 

Wang Huning, the Communist Party’s ideology czar, is also expected to be promoted as the head of China’s top political advisory body.

Wang, a former academic, is an influential party ideologue whose ideas have been at the forefront of China’s more assertive stance on the world stage and has been a Standing Committee member since 2017. Hs is often seen as the ultimate political chameleon and survivor after serving under Xi and his two predecessors.  

Xi Jinping attends the meeting between members of the standing committee of the Political Bureau of the 20th CPC Central Committee and Chinese and foreign journalists at The Great Hall of People on Sunday.

Xi Jinping has left the stage in Beijing’s great Hall of the People and is walking out, after unveiling a Standing Committee — China’s most powerful decision-making body — full of staunch allies, clearing the path for him to rule for a third term with limited internal opposition.

The seven men stood on stage, posing for photos before a crowded room of press, before Xi delivered remarks and introduced each member.

New members of the Politburo Standing Committee are introduced at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing on Sunday.

Xi Jinping has unveiled China’s new top leaders in the seven-member Politburo Standing Committee — with himself at the helm, surrounded by allies and loyalists.

Here are the Standing Committee members, in order of rank — the same order in which they walked out on stage.

• Xi Jinping, 69: China’s supreme leader is beginning a third term as chief of the Communist Party, breaking with recent precedent as he secures another five years in power.
• Li Qiang, 63: Shanghai’s party chief is expected to become China’s next premier in March after the incumbent Li Keqiang steps down. It is the highest-ranking position after Xi Jinping. Unlike current Premier Li Keqiang and his predecessors, Li has not served as a vice-premier or worked in the central government in any capacity.
• Zhao Leji, 65: Hailing from Xi’s ancestral home province, Zhao is currently head of the Communist Party’s anti-corruption body.
• Wang Huning, 67: Wang is a hugely influential Party theorist who has written policies for Xi and his predecessors Hu Jintao and Jiang Zemin. 
• Cai Qi, 66: Cai is the party boss of Beijing and one of Xi’s most-trusted confidants, with their ties dating back to Xi’s time in southern Fujian province. Cai oversaw the Beijing Winter Olympics.
• Li Xi, 66: Li is the current party chief of China’s southern economic engine Guangdong province. A trusted Xi ally, he is expected to oversee the anti-corruption organization.  
• Ding Xuexiang, 60: Xi’s chief of staff and close aide had been widely seen as a leading candidate despite lacking experience as a provincial-level party chief or governor.  

Of these members, Li Qiang, Cai Qi, Li Xi and Ding Xuexiang are newly appointed; the rest are incumbents.

Previous Standing Committee lineups have included younger members and potential successors — but with the youngest member at 60 years old this time, there’s no clear successor in the mix, a potential sign Xi is not stepping down anytime soon.

Shanghai Communist Party Secretary Li Qiang attends the closing ceremony of the 20th Party Congress in Beijing on October 22.

Despite facing strong backlash for a chaotic two-month Covid-19 lockdown in Shanghai earlier this year — which saw residents denied access to food, water, medical care or other basic necessities while confined to their homes — the city’s party chief, Li Qiang, is expected to become China’s next premier in March after the incumbent Li Keqiang steps down.

It is the highest-ranking position in China after Xi Jinping.

Li’s presumptive appointment is seen as the latest proof that loyalty and affinity to Xi trumps all else in China’s current political landscape.

Li Qiang has previously worked closely under Xi in China’s southern economic powerhouse, Zhejiang province.

Unlike current Premier Li Keqiang and his predecessors, Li has not served as a vice-premier or worked in the central government in any capacity.

Watch:

New members of the Politburo Standing Committee, from left, Li Xi, Cai Qi, Zhao Leji, Xi Jinping, Li Qiang, Wang Huning, and Ding Xuexiang are introduced at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing on Sunday.

Chinese leader Xi Jinping has formally stepped into his third term ruling China with an iron grip on power, as he revealed a top leadership body stacked with allies, breaking with recent precedent to secure another five years in power.

On Sunday, following the first meeting of the party’s new Central Committee, six men in addition to Xi were selected to be members of the Politburo Standing Committee, China’s top ruling body:

• Li Qiang
• Zhao Leji
• Wang Huning
• Cai Qi
• Li Xi
• Ding Xuexiang

They now compose the Politburo Standing Committee, China’s most powerful decision-making body, and will sit atop of the party to drive the world’s second-largest economy over the coming half decade.

Chinese President Xi Jinping attends the closing ceremony of the 20th Party Congress in Beijing on October 22.

Chinese leader Xi Jinping is revealing his top leadership team for the next five years, culminating months of closed-door preparations as he begins a norm-breaking third term surrounded by allies — further cementing his power.

The new members of the Politburo Standing Committee, China’s most powerful decision-making body, are walking forth in the Great Hall of the People in Beijing in order of rank — publicly revealing for the first time the faces that will sit atop of the party over the coming half decade.

Closed-door negotiations: The standing committee is formally appointed by a rubber-stamp vote of the party’s newly-formed Central Committee, its 205-member leadership body.

But this is widely viewed as a mere formality, with the real decisions on who will fill the top spots made in closed-door discussions between top party leaders, months before the big day arrived.

Consolidated power: Two key heavyweights not in Xi’s inner circle are now set to retire — leaving Xi head of a Standing Committee largely clear of rivals, changing what for decades had been a power-sharing structure in the party’s top echelon.

Xi Jinping and newly-elected members of the Central Committee arrive to meet the press at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing on October 25, 2017.

We are minutes away from the highly-anticipated reveal of the Communist Party’s Politburo Standing Committee — China’s most powerful decision-making body, and the top leadership team that will surround Xi Jinping as he enters a norm-breaking third term, paving the way for potential lifelong rule.

Their big entrance: These new top leaders will then make a highly-choreographed entrance into the Great Hall of the People in Beijing, walking in order of importance.

As in 2017, Xi is expected to lead the group into the room as the newly-confirmed general secretary and introduce the other members of the new Standing Committee in a nationally televised event.

Why this matters: The line-up will provide a rare glimpse into the black box of Chinese elite politics. China watchers will be waiting to see how many members of the Standing Committee are selected and who they are, as signs of whether Xi has absolute power or has made concessions.

They will also be looking for a potential successor in the midst, which could give a clue into how long Xi intends to rule.

Read the full explainer here.

The new members of the Communist Party’s Politburo Standing Committee, China’s most powerful decision-making body, will make their first appearance in Beijing today, walking out in order of rank to publicly reveal the faces that will sit atop of the party and drive the world’s second-largest economy over the coming half decade.

This year’s event, which comes one day after the close of the five-yearly Party Congress, is one of the most consequential and closely watched in decades.

Top officials retire: A preview into the sweeping reshuffle expected to be unveiled Sunday was on-show at the Congress’ end when two key heavyweights not in Xi’s inner circle – including China’s current number-two Li Keqiang – were not included in the party’s new Central Committee, meaning they have left China’s top ruling body and will go into full retirement.

This will likely leave Xi presiding over a Standing Committee where rivals have largely been eliminated, formally changing what for decades had been a power-sharing structure in the party’s top echelon.

Potential replacements: Several proteges or allies of Xi have been flagged by watchers of elite Chinese politics as likely candidates to fill the newly-empty seats.

A top body filled with loyalists, would “weaken further” top-level power sharing, according to Chen Gang, Senior Research Fellow National University of Singapore’s East Asian Institute.

“(In this case) Xi is no longer first-among-equals, as his predecessors were. Yet he still needs to share power with other standing committee members, even if they were loyal to him before joining the committee,” he said.

Challenges ahead: But even a Standing Committee stacked with allies “does not necessarily mean that Xi will become an omnipotent supreme leader and can do anything. His unlimited power will be constrained by his limited capacity and decreasing energy as he turns older,” said Yang Zhang, an assistant professor at American University’s School of International Service.

Xi’s own associates will divide into different blocs and compete for power; meanwhile, Xi’s full control also means his team will be fully responsible for any policy mistake and could provoke stronger international pushback from the US-led Western countries, he said.

Read the full story:

From left, Ding Xuexiang, Chen Min’er, Li Qiang and Hu Chunhua.

Xi Jinping is about to begin his third term, with an iron grip on power as he prepares to unveil the Communist Party’s top leaders.

The members chosen for the Standing Committee — to be revealed any moment now in the Great Hall of the People in Beijing — could indicate the state of Xi’s influence within the Party.

If he’s able to stack the Standing Committee — which is currently made up of seven men — with allies and loyalists, that could signify even fewer checks on his power; alternatively, a more diverse Standing Committee could suggest Xi has made concessions to other power players or factions.

The Standing Committee selection could also reveal whether a potential successor is in the midst – giving a clue into how long Xi intends to rule.

Here are some of top contenders for the Standing Committee selection:

• Ding Xuexiang, 60: Ding is director of the General Office of the Communist Party — similar to being Xi’s chief of staff. As one of Xi’s most important aides, Ding also attends many of Xi’s overseas events and political meetings; for instance, he was among those at the table when Xi and former US President Donald Trump held a closed-door meeting in 2019 to discuss their trade war.
• Chen Min’er, 62: Chen is one of Xi’s longtime close allies and proteges. As the propaganda tzar of Zhejiang province from 2002 to 2007, Chen helped Xi craft his image, experts say. He later served as party secretary of Guizhou province, one of China’s poorest — before being thrust in the spotlight in 2017, when Xi struck down a rising political star and replaced him with Chen as party secretary of Chongqing, one of China’s largest cities. Chen subsequently joined the Politburo at the 19th Party Congress in 2017.
• Li Qiang, 63: Li has had a long political career, previously serving as governor of Zhejiang province and party secretary of Jiangsu province. He is now a member of Politburo and the party secretary of Shanghai – the same position Xi himself had held before being selected for the Standing Committee in 2007. But Li may also find himself under scrutiny after Shanghai’s disastrous and chaotic two-month Covid lockdown this spring, which saw residents denied access to food, water, medical care or other basic necessities while confined to their homes.
• Hu Chunhua, 59: Hu is one of China’s vice premiers, working under Premier Li Keqiang. Before taking this role, he had served as the party secretary of Guangdong, a powerhouse southern province. A protege of former President Hu Jintao, he has long been touted as a potential successor to Xi — but he was denied a promotion into the Standing Committee in 2017, stalling his rise. Earlier this year, Hu made headlines after calling for “all-out efforts” to stabilize employment, acknowledging it had been “affected by the Covid outbreak.”

Former Chinese president Hu Jintao leaves his seat next to Chinese President Xi Jinping during the closing ceremony of the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing October 22, 2022. REUTERS/Tingshu Wang

The Communist Party’s five-yearly national congress is a carefully choreographed political event, meant to showcase the unity and legitimacy of the party.

But the closing ceremony yesterday in the Great Hall of the People featured a dramatic moment, when former top leader Hu Jintao was led out of the event unexpectedly.

Hu, 79, was seated in a prominent position at the front table on stage, directly next to his successor Xi Jinping, when he was approached by a staff member, according to images and video of the meeting.

While seated, Hu appeared to talk briefly with the male staff member, while Politburo Standing Committee member Li Zhanshu, who was seated to his other side, had his hand on Hu’s back.

Hu then appeared to rise with the help of the staff member, who’d linked his arm around the former leader’s, while a second man came over. Hu spoke with the two men briefly and initially appeared reluctant to leave.

He was then escorted by the two men from his seat, with one holding his arm, as other party members seated behind the main table looked on.

On his way out, Hu was seen to gesture to Xi and say something to the leader. He then patted Premier Li Keqiang on his shoulder. Both Xi and Li appear to have nodded; it was not clear if Xi spoke.

State media breaks silence: The circumstances around his departure were not immediately clear, and CNN was censored on air in China when reporting on Hu’s exit.

The dramatic moment has not been reported across state-run Chinese-language media or discussed on Chinese social media, where such conversation is highly-restricted — but it has set off a firestorm of speculation overseas, with many analysts describing it as public humiliation and likely power play.

China’s state-run news agency Xinhua finally broke its silence on Saturday night, writing on its English-language Twitter account that Hu “insisted on attending the closing session of the Party’s 20th National Congress, despite the fact that he has been taking time to recuperate recently.”

“When he was not feeling well during the session, his staff, for his health, accompanied him to a room next to the meeting venue for a rest. Now, he is much better,” Xinhua wrote.

The comment was attributed to a specific Xinhua reporter, a highly unusual move. Xinhua is the official government news agency, and news lines are typically handed down from government departments, not sourced independently.

Twitter is also banned in China. To date, Xinhua has not posted the statement on their website or Chinese-language social media.

The founder of Communist China, Mao Zedong, ruled from 1949 until 1976 — a period marked by rash policy decisions that led to tens of millions of deaths and destroyed the economy.

After those decades of turmoil, the Communist Party developed a system of collective leadership designed to prevent the rise of another dictator who could make arbitrary and dangerous decisions.

China’s next leader, Deng Xiaoping, set an unwritten rule and precedent that the Communist Party’s General Secretary – the role from which China’s leader derives true power – would step down after two terms.

But since coming to power a decade ago, Chinese leader Xi Jinping has consolidated control to an extent unseen since the era of  Mao. He’s the head of the Chinese Communist Party, the state, the armed forces, and so many committees that he’s been dubbed “chairman of everything.”

And now, he is poised to step into a norm-breaking third term in power, with the potential to rule for life.

But absolute power can often mean absolute responsibility, and as problems mount, analysts warn Xi will have less room to avoid blame.

According to analysts, many dictatorships fall into a pattern of abuse of power and poor decision-making when a lack of critical advice reaches the leader. They point to Vladimir Putin’s increasingly costly war against Ukraine as a concern that Xi’s similarly unquestionable power to the Russian President could one day lead to equally disastrous consequences.

Putin and Xi “suffer from the same strongman-syndrome problem, which is that they turned their policy advice circles into echo chambers, so people are no longer able to speak their mind freely,” Tsang said. “We are seeing big mistakes being made because that internal policy debate has been reduced or indeed eliminated in terms of its scope.”

Read the full analysis:

The Great Hall of the People in Beijing, where the 20th Party Congress was held and where the Politburo Standing Committee will be revealed, on October 23.

With the unveiling of the Standing Committee — China’s most powerful decision-making body — set to begin in the coming hours, journalists in Beijing are converging at the Great Hall of the People, where the event will take place.

Photos show a long line stretching out the entrance of the building, with people taking photos of the area and security personnel standing guard.

An invitation for press to meet the new members of the Politburo Standing Committee in Beijing on October 23.

Security ramped up across Beijing ahead of the Communist Party Congress this past week, with heavy security around Tiananmen Square — across the street from the Great Hall — and roads cleared for buses transporting media and other guests to the event.

Books about Xi Jinping’s governance of China are featured at a closed-loop hotel in Beijing, housing journalists and other guests during the Party Congress.

China’s propaganda machine has also kicked into high gear, with hotel lobbies boasting screens broadcasting Xi Jinping’s speeches and large banners announcing the 20th Communist Party Congress.

There are also Xi-related books everywhere — covering his political philosophy, national campaign against poverty, and general governance over his decade in power — in languages ranging from Russian to French.

China’s top leader Xi Jinping is set to begin a norm-breaking third term with an even greater concentration of power, after retiring key party leaders from the top ruling body to make room for his own allies.

The week-long Communist Party Congress concluded Saturday with the ushering in of a new Central Committee — the party’s 200-member central leadership — which will in turn select a new slate of top leaders on Sunday.

Premier Li Keqiang and Wang Yang — neither of whom is seen to have close ties with Xi — are not included in the new Central Committee, meaning they have left China’s top ruling body and will go into full retirement.

Clear path for Xi: Xi is widely expected to be appointed the party’s general secretary for another five years on Sunday, paving the way for potential lifelong rule. At 69, he has exceeded the informal retirement age of 68 for senior party leaders. Xi’s name is included in the list of new Central Committee members.

Li and Wang are both 67 and eligible to serve another five years on the party’s supreme Politburo Standing Committee under retirement norms. Instead, they are retiring early from the party’s apex of power, in a break with precedents in recent decades.

Li, China’s second-highest ranking leader, is required to step down in March as premier by the country’s constitution, which only allows the premier to serve two terms. Wang, who heads the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference, was previously seen by some as a potential successor to Li.

Full of loyalists: Their surprise departure opens two more spots on the Standing Committee for Xi to fill with his own allies and proteges. Two other members on the body are past retirement age and set to step down.

A standing committee line-up that fills the body with Xi loyalists would “change the power sharing arrangement that China has seen since the late 1970s,” according to Victor Shih, an expert on elite Chinese politics at the University of California San Diego.

“Informally, Xi Jinping’s powers are (already) extremely high. He restructured the military, cleansed the security apparatus of other influence, but formally speaking in the Politburo Standing Committee, even right now, there is a balance of power, where officials historically unaffiliated with him, still held seats – that may come to an end,” said Shih.

Read the full story here:

Hu Jintao, left, leaves his seat during the closing ceremony of the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing on October 22.

Today’s unveiling of the Standing Committee, China’s most powerful decision-making body, follows a day of drama and speculation after the end of the Party Congress on Saturday.

The congress, a week-long meeting of the Communist Party’s top leaders, wrapped up in Beijing with several announcements including the list of the newly-formed 205-member Central Committee — but an unexpected exit from the room came to define the day.

Here are a few key moments:

• All eyes on Hu Jintao: The 79-year-old former leader, Xi Jinping’s predecessor, was led out of the hall by two men during the closing ceremony. The circumstances around his departure were not immediately clear, but he appeared reluctant to leave. He has been seen in increasingly frail health in public in recent years. Later that night, state-run news agency Xinhua said on its English-language Twitter — which is blocked in China — that Hu had been removed for “health” reasons and that he is now “much better.” The incident has not been reported in state-run Chinese-language media or discussed on Chinese social media, where such conversation is highly restricted.
• New Central Committee: The congress unveiled the Central Committee, the party’s main leadership body, with Xi among the new members. Only 11 members are women — or roughly 5% of the total.
• Li Keqiang to step down: The Chinese Premier, the second most powerful official after Xi, is not listed in the newly-formed Central Committee — which means Li is set to retire from his party role. Analysts say this could significantly tilt the balance of power in Xi’s favor, eliminating any last vestiges of moderate resistance.
• No new titles: Xi was not granted new titles or honorifics — and the name of his political ideology, already enshrined in the party charter, was not given additional weight. Experts had speculated ahead of the congress that either of these could happen, which would have further cemented his power. But while Xi was not given a new title, the congress did approve the amendment of its charter, adding several Xi-backed phrases including “struggle” or “fighting spirit” — a term often used by Chinese leaders when speaking about external challenges or perceived threats.

Delegates attend the closing ceremony of the 20th National Congress of China’s ruling Communist Party at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing on October 22.

On Sunday, all eyes are on the reveal of the Communist Party’s top leadership.

The new members of the party’s Politburo Standing Committee, China’s most powerful decision-making body, will make their first appearance in the Great Hall of the People in a moment expected to confirm Xi Jinping’s likely step into a norm-breaking third term and cement his place as China’s most powerful leader in decades.

Which party members follow Xi into the hall as new committee members will reveal much about the extent of his sway within the opaque inner-working of elite party politics – and could provide clues as to whether he sees his rule extending past three terms.

Here’s what to watch:

Open seats. In recent years the standing committee has included seven members, who typically step down in accordance with an unofficial retirement age that sees those 68 and above at the time of the Congress retiring. This year, however, two additional members, 67 year-old Li Keqiang and Wang Yang, neither of whom are thought to be close Xi allies, will also step down – making room for a sweeping reshuffle that will see four new seats filled.

Allies and proteges. One strong indicator of Xi’s power will be the extent to which he is able to fill those open seats with party members in his sphere. Several proteges and allies of Xi have been flagged by watchers of elite Chinese politics as likely candidates for promotion. Those include Chongqing party chief Chen Min’er, 62, Ding Xuexiang, 60, who runs the General Office of the Communist Party, and Shanghai party chief Li Qiang, 63.

Potential successor. Experts will be watching whether there will be a young face – and potential successor – in the standing committee, which could signal whether or not Xi is aiming for a fourth term. The lack of a successor among the line-up at the last Party Congress in 2017 served as a strong signal that Xi was planning to break with recent precedent and claim a third term – a long-calculated move expected to come to fruition Sunday.

Selection process. While the new committee members and the larger 25-member Politburo of which it is a part, will be formally rubber-stamped by the party’s newly formed Central Committee, the real decisions over who fills the Party’s top spots are believed to be made in the months prior to this week’s events in closed-door discussions between top party leaders.