Analysis: Xi Jinping is ruling inside of an echo chamber

We are minutes away from the highly-anticipated reveal of the Communist Party’s Politburo Standing Committee — China’s most powerful decision-making body, and the top leadership team that will surround Xi Jinping as he enters a norm-breaking third term, paving the way for potential lifelong rule.

Their big entrance: These new top leaders will then make a highly-choreographed entrance into the Great Hall of the People in Beijing, walking in order of importance.

As in 2017, Xi is expected to lead the group into the room as the newly-confirmed general secretary and introduce the other members of the new Standing Committee in a nationally televised event.

Why this matters: The line-up will provide a rare glimpse into the black box of Chinese elite politics. China watchers will be waiting to see how many members of the Standing Committee are selected and who they are, as signs of whether Xi has absolute power or has made concessions.

They will also be looking for a potential successor in the midst, which could give a clue into how long Xi intends to rule.

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The new members of the Communist Party’s Politburo Standing Committee, China’s most powerful decision-making body, will make their first appearance in Beijing today, walking out in order of rank to publicly reveal the faces that will sit atop of the party and drive the world’s second-largest economy over the coming half decade.

This year’s event, which comes one day after the close of the five-yearly Party Congress, is one of the most consequential and closely watched in decades.

Top officials retire: A preview into the sweeping reshuffle expected to be unveiled Sunday was on-show at the Congress’ end when two key heavyweights not in Xi’s inner circle – including China’s current number-two Li Keqiang – were not included in the party’s new Central Committee, meaning they have left China’s top ruling body and will go into full retirement.

This will likely leave Xi presiding over a Standing Committee where rivals have largely been eliminated, formally changing what for decades had been a power-sharing structure in the party’s top echelon.

Potential replacements: Several proteges or allies of Xi have been flagged by watchers of elite Chinese politics as likely candidates to fill the newly-empty seats.

A top body filled with loyalists, would “weaken further” top-level power sharing, according to Chen Gang, Senior Research Fellow National University of Singapore’s East Asian Institute.

“(In this case) Xi is no longer first-among-equals, as his predecessors were. Yet he still needs to share power with other standing committee members, even if they were loyal to him before joining the committee,” he said.

Challenges ahead: But even a Standing Committee stacked with allies “does not necessarily mean that Xi will become an omnipotent supreme leader and can do anything. His unlimited power will be constrained by his limited capacity and decreasing energy as he turns older,” said Yang Zhang, an assistant professor at American University’s School of International Service.

Xi’s own associates will divide into different blocs and compete for power; meanwhile, Xi’s full control also means his team will be fully responsible for any policy mistake and could provoke stronger international pushback from the US-led Western countries, he said.

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Xi Jinping is about to begin his third term, with an iron grip on power as he prepares to unveil the Communist Party’s top leaders.

The members chosen for the Standing Committee — to be revealed any moment now in the Great Hall of the People in Beijing — could indicate the state of Xi’s influence within the Party.

If he’s able to stack the Standing Committee — which is currently made up of seven men — with allies and loyalists, that could signify even fewer checks on his power; alternatively, a more diverse Standing Committee could suggest Xi has made concessions to other power players or factions.

The Standing Committee selection could also reveal whether a potential successor is in the midst – giving a clue into how long Xi intends to rule.

Here are some of top contenders for the Standing Committee selection:

• Ding Xuexiang, 60: Ding is director of the General Office of the Communist Party — similar to being Xi’s chief of staff. As one of Xi’s most important aides, Ding also attends many of Xi’s overseas events and political meetings; for instance, he was among those at the table when Xi and former US President Donald Trump held a closed-door meeting in 2019 to discuss their trade war.
• Chen Min’er, 62: Chen is one of Xi’s longtime close allies and proteges. As the propaganda tzar of Zhejiang province from 2002 to 2007, Chen helped Xi craft his image, experts say. He later served as party secretary of Guizhou province, one of China’s poorest — before being thrust in the spotlight in 2017, when Xi struck down a rising political star and replaced him with Chen as party secretary of Chongqing, one of China’s largest cities. Chen subsequently joined the Politburo at the 19th Party Congress in 2017.
• Li Qiang, 63: Li has had a long political career, previously serving as governor of Zhejiang province and party secretary of Jiangsu province. He is now a member of Politburo and the party secretary of Shanghai – the same position Xi himself had held before being selected for the Standing Committee in 2007. But Li may also find himself under scrutiny after Shanghai’s disastrous and chaotic two-month Covid lockdown this spring, which saw residents denied access to food, water, medical care or other basic necessities while confined to their homes.
• Hu Chunhua, 59: Hu is one of China’s vice premiers, working under Premier Li Keqiang. Before taking this role, he had served as the party secretary of Guangdong, a powerhouse southern province. A protege of former President Hu Jintao, he has long been touted as a potential successor to Xi — but he was denied a promotion into the Standing Committee in 2017, stalling his rise. Earlier this year, Hu made headlines after calling for “all-out efforts” to stabilize employment, acknowledging it had been “affected by the Covid outbreak.”

The Communist Party’s five-yearly national congress is a carefully choreographed political event, meant to showcase the unity and legitimacy of the party.

But the closing ceremony yesterday in the Great Hall of the People featured a dramatic moment, when former top leader Hu Jintao was led out of the event unexpectedly.

Hu, 79, was seated in a prominent position at the front table on stage, directly next to his successor Xi Jinping, when he was approached by a staff member, according to images and video of the meeting.

While seated, Hu appeared to talk briefly with the male staff member, while Politburo Standing Committee member Li Zhanshu, who was seated to his other side, had his hand on Hu’s back.

Hu then appeared to rise with the help of the staff member, who’d linked his arm around the former leader’s, while a second man came over. Hu spoke with the two men briefly and initially appeared reluctant to leave.

He was then escorted by the two men from his seat, with one holding his arm, as other party members seated behind the main table looked on.

On his way out, Hu was seen to gesture to Xi and say something to the leader. He then patted Premier Li Keqiang on his shoulder. Both Xi and Li appear to have nodded; it was not clear if Xi spoke.

State media breaks silence: The circumstances around his departure were not immediately clear, and CNN was censored on air in China when reporting on Hu’s exit.

The dramatic moment has not been reported across state-run Chinese-language media or discussed on Chinese social media, where such conversation is highly-restricted — but it has set off a firestorm of speculation overseas, with many analysts describing it as public humiliation and likely power play.

China’s state-run news agency Xinhua finally broke its silence on Saturday night, writing on its English-language Twitter account that Hu “insisted on attending the closing session of the Party’s 20th National Congress, despite the fact that he has been taking time to recuperate recently.”

“When he was not feeling well during the session, his staff, for his health, accompanied him to a room next to the meeting venue for a rest. Now, he is much better,” Xinhua wrote.

The comment was attributed to a specific Xinhua reporter, a highly unusual move. Xinhua is the official government news agency, and news lines are typically handed down from government departments, not sourced independently.

Twitter is also banned in China. To date, Xinhua has not posted the statement on their website or Chinese-language social media.

The founder of Communist China, Mao Zedong, ruled from 1949 until 1976 — a period marked by rash policy decisions that led to tens of millions of deaths and destroyed the economy.

After those decades of turmoil, the Communist Party developed a system of collective leadership designed to prevent the rise of another dictator who could make arbitrary and dangerous decisions.

China’s next leader, Deng Xiaoping, set an unwritten rule and precedent that the Communist Party’s General Secretary – the role from which China’s leader derives true power – would step down after two terms.

But since coming to power a decade ago, Chinese leader Xi Jinping has consolidated control to an extent unseen since the era of  Mao. He’s the head of the Chinese Communist Party, the state, the armed forces, and so many committees that he’s been dubbed “chairman of everything.”

And now, he is poised to step into a norm-breaking third term in power, with the potential to rule for life.

But absolute power can often mean absolute responsibility, and as problems mount, analysts warn Xi will have less room to avoid blame.

According to analysts, many dictatorships fall into a pattern of abuse of power and poor decision-making when a lack of critical advice reaches the leader. They point to Vladimir Putin’s increasingly costly war against Ukraine as a concern that Xi’s similarly unquestionable power to the Russian President could one day lead to equally disastrous consequences.

Putin and Xi “suffer from the same strongman-syndrome problem, which is that they turned their policy advice circles into echo chambers, so people are no longer able to speak their mind freely,” Tsang said. “We are seeing big mistakes being made because that internal policy debate has been reduced or indeed eliminated in terms of its scope.”

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With the unveiling of the Standing Committee — China’s most powerful decision-making body — set to begin in the coming hours, journalists in Beijing are converging at the Great Hall of the People, where the event will take place.

Photos show a long line stretching out the entrance of the building, with people taking photos of the area and security personnel standing guard.

Security ramped up across Beijing ahead of the Communist Party Congress this past week, with heavy security around Tiananmen Square — across the street from the Great Hall — and roads cleared for buses transporting media and other guests to the event.

China’s propaganda machine has also kicked into high gear, with hotel lobbies boasting screens broadcasting Xi Jinping’s speeches and large banners announcing the 20th Communist Party Congress.

There are also Xi-related books everywhere — covering his political philosophy, national campaign against poverty, and general governance over his decade in power — in languages ranging from Russian to French.

China’s top leader Xi Jinping is set to begin a norm-breaking third term with an even greater concentration of power, after retiring key party leaders from the top ruling body to make room for his own allies.

The week-long Communist Party Congress concluded Saturday with the ushering in of a new Central Committee — the party’s 200-member central leadership — which will in turn select a new slate of top leaders on Sunday.

Premier Li Keqiang and Wang Yang — neither of whom is seen to have close ties with Xi — are not included in the new Central Committee, meaning they have left China’s top ruling body and will go into full retirement.

Clear path for Xi: Xi is widely expected to be appointed the party’s general secretary for another five years on Sunday, paving the way for potential lifelong rule. At 69, he has exceeded the informal retirement age of 68 for senior party leaders. Xi’s name is included in the list of new Central Committee members.

Li and Wang are both 67 and eligible to serve another five years on the party’s supreme Politburo Standing Committee under retirement norms. Instead, they are retiring early from the party’s apex of power, in a break with precedents in recent decades.

Li, China’s second-highest ranking leader, is required to step down in March as premier by the country’s constitution, which only allows the premier to serve two terms. Wang, who heads the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference, was previously seen by some as a potential successor to Li.

Full of loyalists: Their surprise departure opens two more spots on the Standing Committee for Xi to fill with his own allies and proteges. Two other members on the body are past retirement age and set to step down.

A standing committee line-up that fills the body with Xi loyalists would “change the power sharing arrangement that China has seen since the late 1970s,” according to Victor Shih, an expert on elite Chinese politics at the University of California San Diego.

“Informally, Xi Jinping’s powers are (already) extremely high. He restructured the military, cleansed the security apparatus of other influence, but formally speaking in the Politburo Standing Committee, even right now, there is a balance of power, where officials historically unaffiliated with him, still held seats – that may come to an end,” said Shih.

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Today’s unveiling of the Standing Committee, China’s most powerful decision-making body, follows a day of drama and speculation after the end of the Party Congress on Saturday.

The congress, a week-long meeting of the Communist Party’s top leaders, wrapped up in Beijing with several announcements including the list of the newly-formed 205-member Central Committee — but an unexpected exit from the room came to define the day.

Here are a few key moments:

• All eyes on Hu Jintao: The 79-year-old former leader, Xi Jinping’s predecessor, was led out of the hall by two men during the closing ceremony. The circumstances around his departure were not immediately clear, but he appeared reluctant to leave. He has been seen in increasingly frail health in public in recent years. Later that night, state-run news agency Xinhua said on its English-language Twitter — which is blocked in China — that Hu had been removed for “health” reasons and that he is now “much better.” The incident has not been reported in state-run Chinese-language media or discussed on Chinese social media, where such conversation is highly restricted.
• New Central Committee: The congress unveiled the Central Committee, the party’s main leadership body, with Xi among the new members. Only 11 members are women — or roughly 5% of the total.
• Li Keqiang to step down: The Chinese Premier, the second most powerful official after Xi, is not listed in the newly-formed Central Committee — which means Li is set to retire from his party role. Analysts say this could significantly tilt the balance of power in Xi’s favor, eliminating any last vestiges of moderate resistance.
• No new titles: Xi was not granted new titles or honorifics — and the name of his political ideology, already enshrined in the party charter, was not given additional weight. Experts had speculated ahead of the congress that either of these could happen, which would have further cemented his power. But while Xi was not given a new title, the congress did approve the amendment of its charter, adding several Xi-backed phrases including “struggle” or “fighting spirit” — a term often used by Chinese leaders when speaking about external challenges or perceived threats.

On Sunday, all eyes are on the reveal of the Communist Party’s top leadership.

The new members of the party’s Politburo Standing Committee, China’s most powerful decision-making body, will make their first appearance in the Great Hall of the People in a moment expected to confirm Xi Jinping’s likely step into a norm-breaking third term and cement his place as China’s most powerful leader in decades.

Which party members follow Xi into the hall as new committee members will reveal much about the extent of his sway within the opaque inner-working of elite party politics – and could provide clues as to whether he sees his rule extending past three terms.

Here’s what to watch:

Open seats. In recent years the standing committee has included seven members, who typically step down in accordance with an unofficial retirement age that sees those 68 and above at the time of the Congress retiring. This year, however, two additional members, 67 year-old Li Keqiang and Wang Yang, neither of whom are thought to be close Xi allies, will also step down – making room for a sweeping reshuffle that will see four new seats filled.

Allies and proteges. One strong indicator of Xi’s power will be the extent to which he is able to fill those open seats with party members in his sphere. Several proteges and allies of Xi have been flagged by watchers of elite Chinese politics as likely candidates for promotion. Those include Chongqing party chief Chen Min’er, 62, Ding Xuexiang, 60, who runs the General Office of the Communist Party, and Shanghai party chief Li Qiang, 63.

Potential successor. Experts will be watching whether there will be a young face – and potential successor – in the standing committee, which could signal whether or not Xi is aiming for a fourth term. The lack of a successor among the line-up at the last Party Congress in 2017 served as a strong signal that Xi was planning to break with recent precedent and claim a third term – a long-calculated move expected to come to fruition Sunday.

Selection process. While the new committee members and the larger 25-member Politburo of which it is a part, will be formally rubber-stamped by the party’s newly formed Central Committee, the real decisions over who fills the Party’s top spots are believed to be made in the months prior to this week’s events in closed-door discussions between top party leaders.