US midterm elections: Why are they so important?

The US elections on 8 November will have an enormous impact on the direction of the nation, as well as the fate of the person and the party in power in the White House.

Joe Biden is not on the ballot – the midterms decide who controls Congress as well as state legislatures and governor’s offices. But the outcome will influence the playing field for the 2024 presidential campaign, and especially the odds of Donald Trump running again.

Here are five reasons why these elections are so important:

This is a textbook case for understanding how midterm voting can directly influence the shape of future policies and the day-to-day lives of Americans across the country.

In June the Supreme Court overturned constitutionally protected abortion rights. Both parties have already proposed new federal abortion legislation if they control Congress in the coming year.

Democrats promise to codify into federal law abortion rights that were protected by the Supreme Court’s Roe vs Wade decision. Republicans have proposed a national ban on abortion after 15 weeks of pregnancy, a rule that would supersede existing protections in Democratic-run states like California, Illinois and New York.

Abortion rights will also play out in individual states, where the outcome of key governor and legislative races in traditional political battlegrounds like Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Arizona and Michigan could directly determine the legality of the procedure in those states.

Who wins control at the federal and state levels will also impact what other policies are focused on. If Republicans prevail, expect immigration, religious rights and addressing violent crime to be a priority. For Democrats, the environment, healthcare, voting rights and gun-control will continue to remain high on the agenda.

The midterm elections will have an impact well beyond policy circles, however. For two years, congressional oversight has been under Democratic control, limiting the amount of scrutiny the White House has faced and making the 6 January riot the primary focus of its investigations.

All that will change if Republicans take control of one chamber of Congress – or both. Already House Republicans are promising hearings on Joe Biden’s son Hunter’s business ties to China, as well as a detailed investigations into the Biden administration’s immigration policies, the US withdrawal from Afghanistan and the origins of the coronavirus pandemic.

If Republicans also take control of the US Senate, expect the process for confirming Biden picks to the federal courts and executive agencies to grind to a standstill.

Midterm elections are typically considered a referendum on the first two years of a presidential term – with the party in power often taking a beating.

Mr Biden’s approval ratings have been poor for more than a year. While Democratic fortunes appear to have recovered somewhat, high inflation and concerns about the economy mean the party still faces an uphill battle to hold both chambers of Congress.

In his first two years as president, Mr Biden has managed to enact substantive legislation on climate change, gun-control, infrastructure investment and child poverty despite his narrow majorities in Congress. If one of those chambers switches to the Republicans, however, the window for accomplishment will slam closed for the rest of the president’s first term in office.

A negative result will quickly be interpreted as a sign of Mr Biden’s continued political weakness – and could renew calls for Mr Biden to step aside for another Democrat when the 2024 presidential campaign season begins.

Unlike recent defeated presidents, Mr Trump has not left politics quietly.

He appears to still harbour interest in returning to the White House in 2024 – and the midterms could strengthen his hand or dash his hopes. While he’s not on the ballot, dozens of his chosen candidates are running in high-profile races across the US.

The former president was able to elevate some Senate candidates, like former football player Herschel Walker in Georgia, television doctor Mehmet Oz in Pennsylvania and populist author JD Vance in Ohio, over more traditional Republican politicians, despite the objections of elder Republican leaders.

If they win, it could prove that his political instincts are sharp – and his brand of conservative politics has national appeal. But if Republicans fall short in Congress, and it’s because of the failure Mr Trump’s unconventional handpicked candidates, the former president could shoulder the lion’s share of the blame.

Such an outcome would bolster the hopes of Mr Trump’s presidential rivals within the party. Both Florida Governor Ron DeSantis and Texas Governor Greg Abbott are up for re-election in November, and could use the results as a springboard for their own campaign to win the Republican nomination in 2024.

The 2022 midterms will be the first federal elections since the 6 January attack on the US Capitol, and the shadow of the event – and the actions by Donald Trump and his loyalists in the months leading up to it – still cast a long shadow over US politics.

Far from chastened by the riot, the former president has continued to question the results of the 2020 presidential election and has actively supported Republican candidates across the US who deny Mr Biden’s presidential victory.

Many of these candidates, like secretary of state nominees Mark Finchem in Arizona and Jim Marchant in Nevada and governor candidate Doug Mastriano in Pennsylvania, are running for offices where they will have at least some control over their state’s electoral systems heading in to the 2024 presidential contest.

In 2020, despite the former president’s efforts, Republican officeholders in multiple states narrowly won by Mr Biden refused to reverse the originally certified voting tallies in their jurisdictions. Two years from now, if a similarly contested election takes place, the outcome of these kinds of challenges could be quite different.

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