US midterms: Would-be AOC takes on ‘last pro-life Democrat’

She has all ingredients needed to be the next Democratic star: young, populist, with the credibility to speak for an important constituency – Hispanic Americans.

On the campaign trail, Jessica Cisneros painted a picture of herself as a child of South Texas, from growing up in a poor, Spanish-speaking household to becoming a lawyer.

Addressing a crowd of hundreds hiding in a church gymnasium from a blistering Texas sun, she made her pitch to oust a nine-term incumbent Democrat from his seat in Congress representing the border district that is over three-quarters Latino.

The centrist Congressman Henry Cuellar – for whom she used to intern in Washington DC- was “anti-labour, anti-immigrant, [and]anti-choice,” Ms Cisneros told supporters.

She, on the other hand, would be a “champion for working people” fighting for abortion access, police reform and labourers.

It appears that message may have failed to resonate with an important swathe of voters in Texas’ 28th Congressional District, which stretches from the eastern suburbs of San Antonio south to the Mexican border.

Ms Cisneros is on the cusp of losing to her old boss in the primary contest to determine the Democratic candidate in November’s general election. Mr Cuellar has declared victory, with a razor-thin margin of just over 100 votes. Once the results are certified by state party officials, Ms Cisneros has a narrow window to request a recount by 8 June.

The nail-biter of a race has laid bare the tensions and divisions within the Democratic Party and, according to some, exposed the weakness of their political calculus – a belief that abortion, free college and “social justice” issues will drive people to the polls.

In some ways, it was always clear that Ms Cisneros would have an uphill battle to fight.

Though she had the backing of left-wing icons Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Elizabeth Warren, she struggled to garner the local support and endorsements needed to unseat a long-time incumbent.

At an appearance in San Antonio, Texas, for Planned Parenthood a week before the vote – abortion access was a key part of her campaign platform – few had even heard of her.

Ahead of the vote, Bernie Sanders, the popular left-wing senator, flew down to stump for her. But attendees at her rally seemed more enthusiastic about seeing him than her. Many were not even from her district, and it was the senator who was given top billing.

On the same day farther south in Laredo, an unassuming town on the southern-most tip of the Lone Star state, Mr Cuellar stood on a pavement outside a firehouse,greeting voters who were casting their ballots early, chatting in Spanish and English.

Speaking to the BBC in between selfies and handshakes, Mr Cuellar expressed confidence that he would win at the polls.

It is “bread and butter” issues like infrastructure, border security and jobs that voters care about, he said.

That he is one of the few Democrats who are anti-abortion – a stance that’s increasingly regarded as radioactive within today’s wider party – hardly figured.

Of the left-wing challenge he faced, he said: “I thank Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren for making the trip and spending a little bit of money in Texas. But at the end of the day, it’s going to be the voters that make the decision.”

Indeed, the Cisneros camp probably “overestimated the enthusiasm” that issues like abortion choice could attract among a largely Catholic constituency, said Sergio Mora, the former Democratic Party Chair of Webb County, which includes Laredo, the political heart of the district.

“It’s socially conservative, and the church is important,” he said. “A lot of voters skew older, and many of them are pro-life to begin with.”

Standing at the counter of her crafts store, covered wall-to-wall with crucifixes and statues of the Virgin of Guadalupe, Angelica Garza, 75, said of Ms Cisneros: “I don’t wish her ill, but I would never vote for her. Ever. Mr Cuellar is a good person. I always vote for him.”

Ms Cisnero’s stance on abortion is the reason. “If she was the candidate (for Congress) I won’t vote. I always vote; but I wouldn’t. I cannot. It is my belief,” said Mrs Garza.

“This is a Catholic city and we don’t believe in that.”

But abortion is clearly shaping up to be a key voting issue in November’s national midterm elections that will determine control of Congress.

In May, a leaked Supreme Court document suggested that the high court will rule to overturn the landmark 1973 Roe v Wade case affirming a constitutional right to abortion.

It has left open the possibility that individual states will be able to ban abortions. Democrats running for office up and down the US have vowed to make protecting abortion access a key part of their platform, Ms Cisneros among them.

“I truly believe abortion is healthcare,” she told BBC.

Her campaign described Mr Cuellar as “the last pro-life Democrat in Congress”. Following the Supreme Court leak, the congressman – a practising Catholic – stated that he has “always been pro-life”, but is against an outright ban. He said exceptions should be made in cases of rape, incest or medical danger.

“My faith is clear: abortion must be rare and safe,” he said.

The issue is one that divides the Latino voters who make up the bulk of the Democrats’ constituents in South Texas. While district-specific figures are not available, 2018 data from the Public Religion Research Institute found that more than half of Texas Latinos – 53% – believe that abortions should be illegal in most cases.

A 2021 Gallup poll found that low-income voters were more likely to be “pro-life”, a factor which may come into play in a district where a fifth of residents are under the poverty line and less than 20% have graduated from college.

Even a week after the votes were cast, the results in this primary race were too close for an official result, with Mr Cuellar leading Ms Cisneros by a margin of 177 votes.

While he declared victory on 25 May, she has yet to concede, hoping that a last-minute tally of previously rejected postal ballots can still propel her to victory.

In Laredo, some voters said that a Cisneros win could mean that they eventually turn their backs on the Democrats altogether.

Ms Cisnero’s pro-choice stance is symptomatic of being “way too far left for South Texas”, said one voter, a law enforcement officer who did not want to be named.

“I eventually want someone besides Cuellar, but it’s not going to be her,” he said. “I’d probably vote for the Republicans then, even if I don’t like it.”