Opinion: Dark clouds are on the horizon for Democrats

Then there is Covid-19. Biden’s ability to usher the nation back to some semblance of normality has always been a key measure of his success. Biden won the 2020 election over former President Donald Trump in part because he was seen as a stabilizing force who could more effectively curb the spread of Covid-19. While vaccines and therapeutic treatments have provided tremendous progress in terms of preventing hospitalizations, the pandemic is still raging. More than a million Americans have died from the virus and cases are on the rise once again.

Congress has thus far failed to fund the administration’s request for a $10 billion Covid relief package, despite repeated warnings the consequences could be dire. And although Republicans are responsible for blocking the funding as part of a dispute over immigration, the public will likely lay the blame on the president if conditions deteriorate, disruptions abound and critical supplies like tests and therapeutics are not readily available.

Then there is the economy. The past month has been filled with warning signs. Democrats would do well to remember the political strategist James Carville’s famous maxim, “It’s the economy, stupid.” Inflation remains a persistent problem, despite economists who initially thought price increases and supply chain challenges would be transitory. The Consumer Price Index increased 8.3% in April 2022 compared to the same time period last year. And even though the unemployment rate has fallen to 3.6%, the lowest level in more than five decades, Americans have a dismal view of the economy.

During a meeting of the House Democratic Caucus, Rep. Katie Porter urged her colleagues to be more responsive to inflation and the squeeze this puts on American families, sharing a story about a recent trip to the supermarket where she discovered the price of bacon had risen to almost $10 a pound. When one Democrat later told her they weren’t seeing the issue reflected in the polls, Porter responded: “Well, you don’t know what to ask.” Democrats should heed Porter’s warning and be more responsive to the issues concerning average Americans.

The Federal Reserve has already started hiking interest rates in an attempt to tame inflation, although this is also driving fears of a recession. Meanwhile, an extraordinarily turbulent month on Wall Street has pushed the S&P 500 into a bear market briefly. Many economists are predicting things will get much worse before they get better, though there is disagreement over whether this will translate into a long-term period of stagflation.

None of this bodes well for Democrats. In recent decades, poor economic conditions have had a negative impact on the president’s party. In 1982, with unemployment topping 10% during what was dubbed the “Reagan Recession,” Republicans lost 26 seats in the House. In 2010, as the nation continued to reel from the economic fallout of the 2008 market crash and recession, Democrats suffered a wipeout in the House.

Although both Reagan and Obama went on to win reelection, the midterms led to a shift in congressional power that had profound effects on their agendas. For President Reagan, the House became a key obstacle that stopped him from achieving much of his agenda. Democrats were able to block the most draconian efforts to dismantle social safety set and pushed the administration to agree to compromises over issues like Social Security.

And after the 2010 midterms, Obama would never again find the kind of policymaking support he enjoyed in his first two years in office. Instead, he found himself fighting over the budget with members of Congress who threatened to send the nation into default. Obama resorted to using his executive power to achieve gains in areas like immigration reform.

To be sure, Democrats can still take steps in the coming months to dampen the political body blows. If the administration can make short-term progress on inflationary pressures by reducing tariffs Trump imposed on China, and calm the stock market by restoring confidence in the direction of the economy, voters might be less inclined to revolt come November.

This will require the kind of smart and effective messaging that has often been a missing element of the Biden administration. Democrats need to highlight the accomplishments that have gone unrecognized and take on issues like student debt that could demonstrate the administration making concrete progress.

Democrats could also focus on the radical nature of the GOP and the threat Trump-endorsed candidates could pose to our democracy. These sorts of appeals have worked before. In 1998, Democrats highlighted House Speaker Newt Gingrich’s extreme tactics and successfully turned the public against him. In 2022, Democrats would be wise to utilize the anger stimulated by the Supreme Court’s pending decision to overturn Roe v. Wade to generate the level of voter turnout Democrats will need to win.

The first midterm election of a new presidency tends to be a referendum on the commander in chief, even if he isn’t on the ballot. Historic trends and poor economic conditions might just be enough to give Republicans the kind of majorities that would enable them to cause legislative chaos in the next two years of the Biden presidency.

Democrats will need all hands on deck from right now until the midterms, working the campaign trail to canvass, organize and register voters to facilitate turnout at levels that might potentially soften the blow that looms on the horizon.