Analysis: The biggest 2022 upset no one is talking about

CNN —  

On Monday night, the US Supreme Court rejected Republican-led challenges to congressional district maps in North Carolina and Pennsylvania, handing Democrats a win in each of the hotly contested states.

The Supreme Court’s decision effectively cements a huge story that has been under the radar for months now: Democrats are on track to emerge from the decennial redistricting process in FAR better shape than either party expected even a year ago.

“This ruling ensures the 2022 House map will be much less skewed towards Republicans than the current one (and perhaps not skewed towards Rs at all),” tweeted Dave Wasserman, a nonpartisan redistricting expert and House editor at the Cook Political Report, on Monday night.

And Wasserman noted that the news could get even better – if the Ohio Supreme Court invalidates a Republican plan, it could mean two to three more House seats for Democrats.

All of that follows on a new map unveiled by New York Democrats last month, which could result in a 22-4 Democratic advantage in the state’s delegation. (The current split is 19 Democrats, 8 Republicans.)

It’s a remarkable upsetting of expectations. Heading into the once-a-decade redraw, the conventional wisdom was that Republicans would have a large edge in redistricting – one they would use to further position themselves to win back the House in 2022.

Wrote FiveThirtyEight, a political analysis and projection site, shortly after the 2020 election:

“Joe Biden may have won the White House, but down-ballot races were much better for Republicans. In fact, the GOP’s victories in state-level elections could pay dividends long after Biden leaves office, thanks to their influence over next year’s redistricting process.”

The disparity was stark. According to the Cook Political Report, Republicans had full control of the line-drawing process in 20 states that comprised 187 congressional districts, while Democrats had that same full control in just eight states with 75 districts total.

So, what happened?

The most aggressive Democratic gerrymanders – like New York and Illinois – appear to have withstood any potential legal challenges. The same can’t be said for similarly over-the-top Republican gerrymanders in places like North Carolina. (For more on this, check out today’s CITIZEN by CNN newsletter.)

In other states, deadlocks in the main body charged with drawing the lines handed power to a third-party entity, which favored Democrats.

The most obvious and important example of that reality is in Pennsylvania. The state’s Supreme Court, where Democrats hold a majority, took control of the line-drawing process last month after the Democratic governor and Republican-controlled legislature deadlocked on a map that must reduce the state’s House delegation from 18 seats to 17 seats.

The Point: Democrats are still underdogs in their quest to hold the House majority come November – even with the unexpected redistricting boost. But the map looks less unfriendly to the party than even the biggest Democratic optimists could have imagined a year ago.