With latest intelligence indicating an attack on Ukraine could come within days, the US is watching for signs that Russian preparations have entered the final stage

French President Emmanuel Macron on Friday called for an end to military activity in Ukraine’s Donbas region, after both the Ukrainian armed forces and separatists controlling parts of eastern Ukraine spoke of renewed shelling. 

Macron said that teams from the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) would have to clarify the events of the last few hours and days. 

In an earlier statement, the OSCE said the organization is “aware that Russia is intent on creating a pretext to justify an invasion” into Ukraine, and has received reports which detail Russia’s “efforts to fabricate supposed ‘Ukrainian provocations’ and shape a public narrative that would justify a Russian invasion.”

“Starting several weeks ago, we acquired information that the Russian government was planning to stage a fabricated attack by Ukrainian military or security forces against Russian sovereign territory, or against Russian-speaking people in separatist-controlled territory, to justify military action against Ukraine,” the OSCE statement outlines. 

“We must resolutely rebut the false narrative about a Ukrainian ‘escalation’ which finds no evidence whatsoever in the reports of the OSCE’s Special Monitoring Mission,” the statement added. 

Macron echoed remarks by other NATO allies, noting that he had seen “no evidence of Russian military disengagement at this stage.” 

“I welcome President (Vladimir) Putin’s statements, but I believe that if we want to be a reliable partner, it is always good that actions are in line with statements, and therefore we want to be able to have concrete elements that follow them,” he told reporters.

“We call for the reopening of constructive negotiations, because we continue to believe that this situation can be resolved through dialogue,” Macron said. 

He also noted that the “next few hours” would “see close coordination between European and American allies,” who will aim to provide an “appropriate response” by the end of the day. 

“I have heard the words of the Russian president. Now we need to move to action, and we need to work with great precision and commitment to stabilize and then de-escalate the situation in collaboration with Russia,” Macron said. “That is essential.”

Russian President Vladimir Putin called the threat of new Western sanctions “a gross violation of international law,” saying the country must “strengthen ourselves from within” to overcome it.  

Russia has been threatened with major new sanctions by the West if it invades Ukraine. 

“That’s sanctions pressure. Firstly, it is absolutely not legal, it is a gross violation of international law, which those who are now talking about it care for only when it is beneficial to them. And when it does not suit them, then they forget about all the norms of international law,” Putin said in a news conference on Friday. 

“The only way to overcome such a state of affairs is to strengthen ourselves from within,” he added.

Putin also alleged that a reason would be found to impose sanctions on Russia, regardless of the outcome of the Ukraine crisis. 

“First of all, of course, in the sphere of economy, sanctions will be imposed in any case … Because the goal is different, the goal is to slow down the development of Russia and, in this case, Belarus,” he said following his meeting with Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko. 

Vitali Klitschko, the mayor of Kyiv, made a plea for more defensive weapons to German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock and US Secretary of State Antony Blinken during a panel at the Munich Security Conference on Friday. 

“It’s very important right now,” Klitschko said, acknowledging the support from Germany and the US, “but we need, right now, defensive weapons.”

Klitschko previously called Germany’s offer to Ukraine of 5,000 helmets a “joke,” but this time, he thanked Germany for the 5,000 helmets, but said those are not enough.

“We can’t defend our country just with that,” Klitschko said.

Baerbock noted that the Ukrainians had asked for helmets and that there is a new list of requests from Ukraine, and Germany is looking at what else they can do.

In the last year alone, the US has provided $650 million in defensive lethal assistance to Ukraine, and that assistance would continue, Blinken said. 

During the panel, Baerbock also spoke to the constraints Germany has when it comes to arms sales because of its history.

“That’s why we have a very restrictive arms control legislation,” she said. “Because of our history, we have this legislation that we are saying, we are not selling weapons to everybody in the world, but only to our partners, NATO partners and European Union partners.”

Blinken said that the countries are not just coordinating with one another but also acting in a way that is complementary to one another. 

The leader of the second self-declared republic in eastern Ukraine has announced that the evacuation of civilians to Russia is being organized. The announcement follows a similar move by the pro-Russian authorities in Donetsk.

Leonid Pasechnik, the most senior official in the Luhansk People’s Republic, said in a statement that he had “due to the escalation of tension on the contact line, instructed the heads of the territories of the Republic to ensure the organized evacuation of the population … and help the population in the delivery to border checkpoints.”

Pasechnik said “the Russian Federation is ready to provide organized reception and accommodation on its territory of residents of the Luhansk People’s Republic.”

“Once again, I appeal to all men who are able to hold weapons in their hands, to defend their land,” Pasechnik added.

He accused Ukrainian forces of violating the ceasefire regime 29 times in the last day and listed 13 towns that he said had been shelled.

Earlier today, CNN reported that the leader of the breakaway Donetsk region in eastern Ukraine, Denis Pushilin, has appealed to civilians to begin a mass evacuation because of what he described as Ukrainian aggression.

Pushilin said that from “today, Feb. 18, a mass centralized evacuation of the population to the Russian Federation has been organized.”

“By agreement with the leadership of the Russian Federation in the Rostov region, the places of reception and accommodation of our citizens are ready,” Pushilin said. 

“All conditions have been created for a quick transition at checkpoints.” Pushilin said the order was given because of Ukraine’s “daily build-up of troops and lethal weapons, including Smerch and Uragan multiple launch rocket systems, NLAW rocket sets, as well as Javelins and Stingers along the entire contact line.” 

Sebastian Shukla and Anastasia Graham-Yooll contributed reporting to this post.

German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock said that the ongoing Ukraine-Russia crisis should be framed not as an Ukraine crisis, but as a “Russia crisis,” while warning of a “new war impeding right in the middle of Europe.”

Baerbock said a Russian troop buildup around Ukraine is “an absolutely unacceptable threat,” to Ukraine and to the “peace architecture in Europe,” during her opening statement at the Munich Security Conference on Friday.

Baerbock said earlier in the week that the West observed a ”glimmer of hope” in the Ukraine-Russia crisis, ”but we now need to see proof of Russian troops withdrawal,” adding that Germany is still considering ”all options on the table, including Nord Stream 2 ”regarding potential unprecedented sanctions on Russia.”

Baerbock added that Germany is ready to ”fight for every millimeter (of peace) — and every millimeter is better than none at all,” on the diplomatic front exclusively. 

Due to the country’s role in World War II, Germany is not exporting weapons to Ukraine and under its very restrictive arms control legislation is only selling weapons to its NATO and European partners.

”We have different roles, we have different histories,” Baerbock said.

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken cited the last 24-48 hours, including Russia adding “leading edge forces” to its troops on Ukraine’s border, to show that Russia’s coercive tactics toward Ukraine are already in play.

 Blinken said what Russia has done in recent days has the US on alert.

Blinken said the US is doing “everything” possible to make clear that there is a diplomatic path forward but is “deeply concerned” that Russia is not pursuing that path. 

“Even as we are doing everything we possibly can to make clear that there’s a diplomatic path, that this has to be resolved, the differences have to be resolved through dialogue, through diplomacy, we are deeply concerned that that is not the path that Russia has embarked on,” Blinken said.

US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin spoke with his Russian counterpart on Friday as tensions between Russia and Ukraine remain extremely high, and Russia continues to add troops and build up its military presence at Ukraine’s border. 

Austin is currently traveling in Poland as a part of a week-long trip. He was at the NATO defense ministerial in Brussels on Thursday.

The latest US intelligence assessment indicates that Russia is continuing with preparations to invade Ukraine, according to a senior US official with direct knowledge and another source directly familiar with the intelligence.

The assessment — described as “bleak” by the senior official — indicates Russia could attack in the coming days. The US still expects any Russian invasion to be prefaced by a false flag operation, another US official said. 

However, US officials caution they do not know if Putin has made a final decision to invade and note he may delay action or not order it at all. Earlier assessments forecasting military action by Russia this week did not bear out. 

The US has briefed the Ukrainian military on the newest assessment, according to a senior US official and a senior Ukrainian government official. 

US President Joe Biden warned Thursday that “every indication” leads him to believe Russia could invade Ukraine in the coming days. “My sense is it will happen in the next several days,” the President said the White House south lawn.

The US is now watching for signs that Russian preparations have entered the final stage, including the loading of amphibious ships and the further positioning of combat units closer to the Ukrainian border.

US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin warned Friday that Russia is moving military elements as if “they were preparing to launch an attack,” he added, noting that NATO has observed Russia moving and dispersing troops near the Ukrainian border, and increasing its logistical capabilities in the region. 

The US also remains concerned that Russia may attempt to create a false pretext for invasion by staging attacks on its own territory or forces which it would blame on Ukraine or the West. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken laid out the range of potential scenarios before the United Nations Security Council Thursday.

Russia has “probably has massed between 169,000-190,000 personnel in and near Ukraine as compared with about 100,000 on Jan. 30,” Michael Carpenter, the US ambassador to the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe, said Friday. 

“While Russia has sought to downplay or deceive the world about their ground and air preparations, the Russian military has publicized its large-scale naval exercises in the Black Sea, Baltic Sea and the Arctic,” he said.

“Russia has publicly said the Black Sea exercise alone involves more than 30 ships, and we assess that amphibious landing ships from the Northern and Baltic Fleets were sent to the Black Sea to augment forces there,” he continued.  

In the statement, Carpenter laid out seven steps he recommends the Russians fulfill in order to “reduce risk of miscalculation and lower tensions.”

The steps include:

The OSCE is a 57-member security organization that also includes the US and Canada.

The large estimate of 160,000-190,000 Russian personnel by the US includes Russian troops on the borders of Ukraine as well as the Russian-led forces in eastern Ukraine, an administration official tells CNN.

The earlier estimate this week from a senior administration official on approximately 150,000 forces was just borders and did not factor in the Russian-backed separatists.

CNN’s Kaitlan Collins contributed reporting to this post.