Situation in Ukraine ‘building now to some kind of crescendo opportunity for Mr. Putin,’ says Pentagon spokesman

Pentagon press secretary John Kirby warned Sunday that the situation in Ukraine is “building now to some sort of crescendo opportunity for Mr. Putin,” based on US intelligence.

Asked on Fox News Sunday what intelligence the Pentagon has seen to suggest Russia could invade Ukraine at any moment, Adm. Kirby said “it really was a combination of factors” including what the United States is seeing “in plain sight” on the border.

In a separate interview with MSNBC, Kirby provided a further readout of Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin’s Saturday phone call with his Russian counterpart. This said that Austin made the point that “if one of the things President Putin says he doesn’t want is a strong NATO and a strong NATO on his western flank, he’s exactly going to end up with that result” if he continues down the path of invasion. 

Kirby also confirmed on MSNBC that 160 Florida National Guard soldiers have safely left Ukraine after the Pentagon ordered their evacuation Saturday. Those troops have been in Ukraine since November on a training mission.

Kirby said that Austin “out of an abundance of caution… decided it was time to move them out of the country.” The press secretary added that the troops were already stationed close to the Polish border and it was “fairly easy to get them out of the country.”

Asked whether German Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s planned visit to Russia on Tuesday was a “last-ditch effort,” Kirby replied: “I don’t know if I’d say last ditch but certainly we recognize the time component here seems to be shrinking and that gives us all cause for concern. But again, we’ve said it and we still believe it today, there is still a time and a space for a diplomatic path forward.”

Ukraine Defense Minister Oleksiy Reznikov said Sunday that Ukraine had received 180 tons of ammunition from the United States for the Ukrainian Armed Forces.

“Our friends are not sleeping!” he tweeted.

Lithuania’s Ministry of Defense said the Baltic state had also sent defense aid to Ukraine over the weekend. Minister of Defense Arvydas Anušauskas said Sunday that the aid included “the Stinger anti-aircraft missile system.” 

The Lithuanian Embassy in Kyiv published photos of the defense aid inside a C-17 aircraft, which showed that vehicles were also sent. The embassy said the aid also included protective vests.

Reznikov tweeted his thanks for that delivery, noting that it contained Stingers — a portable air-defense system that can be deployed by ground troops against aircraft.

He added that Ukrainian and Lithuanian relations were “very close (and) have lasted for many centuries.”

France is not for the moment advising its citizens to leave Ukraine, but has urged its compatriots there to prepare water, food and warm clothing.

In a message published Sunday on the website of the French Embassy in Kyiv, the French ambassador also recommends having a full tank of gas for vehicles, and stocking up on extra fuel.

The embassy remains open, Ambassador Etienne de Poncins says. But the French school in Kyiv, “Anne de Kiev,” is starting its February holidays a few days early, that is next Tuesday, “in order to allow those who wish to go on vacation a little earlier.”

The embassy has advised French citizens to postpone “all trips to Ukraine,” and travel to border areas is strictly discouraged.

US national security adviser Jake Sullivan said Sunday that the United States believes Russia could launch an invasion of Ukraine this week, but is still holding out hope diplomacy can prevail.

Sullivan told CNN’s Jake Tapper on “State of the Union” that Russian forces are in a place where an invasion could take place before the end of the Beijing Winter Olympics, which conclude on February 20. “A major military action could begin by Russia in Ukraine any day now,” he said.

“And we are prepared to continue to work on diplomacy, but we are also prepared to respond in a united and decisive way with our allies and partners should Russia proceed.”

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Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky discussed the tensions surrounding his country with Charles Michel, the President of the European Council, on Sunday, according to the Ukrainian presidency.

According to a readout, Zelensky and Michel discussed the security situation as well as moves “to de-escalate the situation and achieve peace within the existing negotiation formats, in particular Normandy.” 

Zelensky stressed the importance of “coordinating political and diplomatic efforts in order to unlock the peace process and restore stability,” the presidency’s readout said.

He thanked Michel and other EU leaders for keeping their diplomats in Ukraine and supporting his country through their efforts, the readout added. Zelensky also emphasized the need to impose “preventive sanctions” against Russia to curb any aggressive intentions.

“We understand all the risks and are ready for any scenario. But we have been in this situation since 2014. And today our biggest enemy is panic,” Zelensky said. 

The leaders also discussed increasing Ukraine’s defence and financial stability and further practical cooperation with the European Union, the readout said.

US President Joe Biden and his Ukrainian counterpart Volodymyr Zelensky will speak at 10:45 a.m. ET Sunday, amid US warnings that a Russian invasion of Ukraine could happen as soon as this week. 

Biden and Zelensky last spoke last month and it “did not go well,” a senior Ukrainian official told CNN at the time, amid disagreements over the “risk levels” of a Russian attack.

The White House, however, disputed that account, warning that anonymous sources were “leaking falsehoods.” They did state that Biden warned Zelensky an imminent invasion was a “distinct possibility.”

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz called the threat to peace in Europe “very very serious,” amid concern over the Russian troop buildup near Ukraine’s borders.

In brief comments outside the German parliament following a vote to re-elect the country’s president, Scholz previewed his visits to Kyiv on Monday and to Moscow on Tuesday by describing his task as exploring how to keep the peace on the continent.

Scholz said that if there was a military aggression against Ukraine, there would be “reactions and sanctions which we have prepared carefully.”

At the same time, Scholz said, the available avenues for talks had to be used.

President Frank-Walter Steinmeier was backed by the federal assembly to serve a second five-year term. The role is largely ceremonial.

The Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) has criticized the decision by the United States and United Kingdom to withdraw observers from the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OCSE) Special Monitoring Mission in Ukraine. The ministry said that the mission was being “deliberately dragged into a militaristic psychosis” allegedly being orchestrated by Washington.

In a statement released Sunday, MFA spokesperson Maria Zakharova said: “These decisions cannot but cause serious concern with us…. The mission is being deliberately dragged into a militaristic psychosis being whipped up by Washington and used as a tool for possible provocation.”

She added: “We call on the OSCE leadership to resolutely suppress attempts to manipulate the Mission and prevent the Organization from being dragged into unscrupulous political games played around it. We proceed from the fact that in conditions of artificially whipped up tension, the monitoring activities of the Mission in full compliance with its mandate are in demand more than ever.”

The US and the UK say they have pulled their observers over concerns about the deteriorating security situation in Ukraine.

Pope Francis appealed to political leaders on Sunday, urging them to seek peace amid escalating tensions between Ukraine and Russia.

“The news from Ukraine is very worrying. I entrust every effort for peace to the intercession of the Virgin Mary and to the conscience of the political leaders,” the pontiff said following his weekly Angelus prayer, before leading the faithful gathered in St. Peter’s Square in the Vatican City in silent prayer. 

Francis has made numerous calls for peace regarding the situation at the Ukraine-Russia border, and led an international day of prayer for Ukraine last month.