CDC forecast predicts more than 61,000 new US Covid-19 deaths will occur over next 4 weeks

An ensemble forecast from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention published Wednesday predicts that over 61,000 more people could die from Covid-19 over the next four weeks. 

According to data from Johns Hopkins University (JHU), coronavirus has killed 854,076 people in the United States. 

The forecast could mean an average of 2,575 Covid-19 deaths a day, up from a current average of 1,576 per day, according to JHU data. 

The CDC included projections that indicate the number of deaths will steadily, but slowly rise for the first three weeks, followed by a decrease in the last week. 

Hospitalizations are predicted to remain stable or have an uncertain trend after eight weeks of predicted increases, with 9,600 to 36,900 new confirmed Covid-19 hospital admissions likely reported on Feb. 11. 

There are currently 154,335 people hospitalized with Covid-19, according to data from the US Department of Health and Human Services. 

The forecast for cases did not predict an increase or decrease, or give a predicted number of cases. 

“Recent case forecasts have shown low reliability, with more reported cases than expected falling outside the forecast prediction intervals for 1-, 2-, 3-, and 4-week ahead case forecasts. Therefore, case forecasts will continue to be collected and analyzed but will not be summarized until sustained improvements in performance are observed,” the CDC said. 

Jefferson County Public Schools, Kentucky’s largest school district, will be conducting classes remotely for the remainder of the week due to Covid-19-related staff shortages, according to a statement on the district’s website. 

“If our staffing levels return to a point that we can safely operate school, our scheduled return to in-person instruction will be Monday, January 24,” the district said in a statement. 

The staffing shortages come as Kentucky is experiencing an all-time high positivity rate of 30.25%, according to the Kentucky Cabinet for Health and Family Services.

At least three other districts in the state are also temporarily in remote formats due to a surge in Covid-19 cases among teachers. 

In a message to parents posted on Twitter, Woodford County Public Schools told parents while “this decision was not made lightly,” the high number of staff testing positive has made it “increasingly difficult to adequately staff” schools in the district. 

After two digital school days, Union County Public Schools plans to have students return to an in-person instruction on Thursday. “It has been our goal to stay in school as long as we could remain operational,” the district said in a statement posted on Facebook.  

Hopkins County Public Schools moved to digital learning, too. “The current staff shortages make it impossible to provide in-person classroom instruction,” a statement read on their website.  

Here’s why the Omicron surge has one Kentucky healthcare worker worried about his kids:

As Covid-19 cases rise again in nursing homes, a few states have begun requiring visitors to present proof that they’re not infected before entering facilities, stoking frustration and dismay among family members.

Officials in California, New York and Rhode Island say new Covid-19 testing requirements are necessary to protect residents — an enormously vulnerable population — from exposure to the highly contagious Omicron variant. But many family members say they can’t secure tests amid enormous demand and scarce supplies, leaving them unable to see loved ones. And being shut out of facilities feels unbearable, like a nightmare recurring without end.

Severe staff shortages are complicating the effort to ensure safety while keeping facilities open; these shortages also jeopardize care at long-term care facilities — a concern of many family members.

Read the full story here.

Nearly two years since the coronavirus pandemic was officially declared by the World Health Organization (WHO), we’re still no closer to knowing when it will end.

The highly transmissible Omicron variant has swept the globe since it was first detected in South Africa in November. Cases in the United States are at a record high and continue to climb. From Australia to Germany, infections are leaping to never-before-seen levels, putting a significant strain on health care systems.

But the fact that it is less likely to cause severe disease than previous coronavirus variants has led to heavy speculation over whether it might mark a turning point — or a conclusion — to the pandemic.

WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus poured cold water on that theory Tuesday, saying, “this pandemic is nowhere near over.”

And yet some governments seem to be resigning themselves to the virus ripping through their populations indefinitely. According to their logic, “we need to learn to live with this virus.”

But what exactly does that look like, and how long will it last?

In some European countries, pandemic strategy continues to down-shift toward fewer mitigation measures, reduced quarantine periods and fewer restrictions on travel. In fact, in places such as Spain, the thinking is to treat Omicron more like the flu — despite public health officials, including WHO, cautioning against that approach.

In Britain, an Omicron spike threatened to put the country’s health service on a “war footing.” But now that the wave seems to have crested — 93,890 new cases were reported on Tuesday compared to 129,544 on the same day last week — the restrictions imposed in December, which included masks on public transport, will be eased next week.

Read the full story here.

Watch the moment WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus says no country is “out of the woods” with Omicron:

The new government website where people can order free Covid-19 at-home rapid antigen tests is up and running. With just names and addresses, families can go to COVIDtests.gov and request up to four free tests to be delivered to their homes.

The website comes online as the Biden administration faces growing pressure to fix the coronavirus testing shortage amid the Omicron surge. The White House says it already has tens of millions of tests ready to go. It is spending $4 billion to deliver the first 500 million tests to homes across the US.

The program passes the testing pressure to the US Postal Service, which says it’s prepared to deliver.

But right now, USPS is facing problems, with communities in several states dealing with mail delays because of the Omicron variant of coronavirus.

As of Tuesday, more than 19,200 postal workers were either sick from Covid-19 or quarantining, just shy of the agency’s pandemic high last January and more than twice as many as just two weeks ago, according to the American Postal Workers Union.

USPS is now ramping up operations. It’s setting up 43 centers that will pack and ship the tests and is hiring more than 7,000 temporary workers, many of whom were brought on for the holidays, according to the American Postal Workers Union.

USPS defended its service performance during the Omicron surge in a news release last week, saying 90% of first-class mail had been delivered on time in the first week of January.

But even if all goes right, don’t expect overnight delivery: The White House predicts most tests will ship in seven to 12 days, and not until late January.

The Biden administration says the tests should be used in three situations: if you have Covid-19 symptoms; at least five days after exposure; or before gathering indoors with unvaccinated people or those at higher risk for Covid-19.

Read the full story here.

The Biden administration launched covidtests.gov to provide Americans up to 1 billion free Covid-19 at-home tests.

Have you tried to order tests through the site? Share your experience with CNN. You could be included in an upcoming story.

The Biden administration will make 400 million N95 masks available to Americans for free starting next week, a White House official told CNN, the latest federal step aimed at reining in the US’ Covid-19 surge.

The masks — which are coming from the Strategic National Stockpile — will be made available at a number of local pharmacies and community health centers, the official said, adding that the program will be “fully up and running by early February.”

Some background: The 400 million non-surgical N95 masks amount to more than half of the 750 million stored in the US’ Strategic National Stockpile, a figure that tripled over the last year as the White House sought to boost reserves. The US Centers of Disease Control and Prevention recently advised that well-fitting respirators approved by the National Institute for Occupational Safety & Health — such as N95 masks — offer “the highest level of protection” against Covid-19.

The administration’s step comes as the US grapples with an unprecedented surge in Covid-19 cases. An average of more than 750,000 new Covid-19 infections were reported every day over the past week, according to Johns Hopkins University data.

Beyond masks, the federal government has also quietly launched its website to sign up for free Covid-19 tests, allowing people to order a maximum of four tests shipped directly to their household.

Japan will place Tokyo and 12 other prefectures under a quasi-state of emergency from Friday until mid-February amid a rapid surge of coronavirus cases, Prime Minister Fumio Kishida said Wednesday.

The emergency measures will be applied to Tokyo, Chiba, Kanagawa, Saitama, Gunma, Niigata, Aichi, Gifu, Mie, Kagawa, Nagasaki, Kumamoto, and Miyazaki and be in place until Feb. 13, Kishida told a government task force meeting on Wednesday.

Okinawa, Yamaguchi and Hiroshima have been under a quasi-state of emergency since Jan. 9, with measures set to stay in place until the end of the month.

Some background: Under a quasi-state of emergency, local governors can request that dining establishments shorten their operating hours and stop serving alcohol. Residents in these areas are also asked to avoid traveling across prefectural borders.

Tokyo reported 7,377 new Covid-19 cases on Wednesday, up 2,192 cases from the day before and the highest daily case count of the pandemic, according to local government data.

The capital has 10 severely ill patients as of Wednesday – up three from the day before. 

Meanwhile, Osaka prefecture in western Japan recorded about 6,101 new coronavirus cases on Wednesday, according to local government data.

Nationwide, Japan recorded 32,087 cases on Tuesday, according to Johns Hopkins University.

In his first policy speech at the start of a 150-day regular Diet session on Monday, Kishida said he will dedicate himself to containing Covid-19 in Japan as the Omicron variant fuels a surge in cases nationwide. He asked for public cooperation to win the battle against the virus.

Kishida also pledged on Monday to roll out booster shots more quickly, vaccinate young children and ensure medical care services available for those with severe Covid-19 symptoms even when cases climb.

From Jan. 10-16, global Covid-19 cases increased 20% compared to the week before, with over 18 million new cases reported, according to the World Health Organization’s weekly epidemiological update published Tuesday. 

In the previous epidemiological update, published Jan. 11, there was a 55% increase in new cases compared with the week before. 

In the update, the highest increase was reported in the South-East Asia region with 145%, followed by the Eastern Mediterranean region (68%), the Western Pacific region (38%), the region of the Americas (17%) and the European region (10%). 

The US reported the highest number of new cases, followed by France, India, Italy and the United Kingdom. 

As of Jan. 16, there have been over 323 million confirmed cases worldwide.

The number of new deaths remained similar to the previous week, with over 45,000 new deaths reported. 

Two regions, the South-East Asian region and the region of the Americas, reported increases in deaths of 12% and 7% respectively. The other regions reported numbers similar to the previous week. 

As of Jan. 16, over 5.5 million deaths have been reported globally.