Covid Wave Dampens New Year Celebrations Worldwide

This past year began with the ramping up of a mass vaccination campaign, which many people celebrated by taking post-shot selfies of their bandaged arms. By February, new Covid-19 cases were plummeting, and by spring, the virus seemed as if it might be in permanent retreat. On June 2, President Biden gave a speech looking ahead to “a summer of freedom, a summer of joy.”

But then came a turning point of 2021: the emergence of the Delta variant.

It began spreading in the U.S. in the late spring and caused many more infections among the vaccinated than earlier versions of the virus. The overwhelming majority of these breakthrough infections were mild, but they did have the potential to cause serious illness in the older and other vulnerable people.

Delta also sparked new outbreaks among the unvaccinated, and tens of thousands of them died. Ultimately, the U.S. death toll from Covid in 2021 — more than 475,000 — exceeded the 2020 toll. The increase is especially tragic, epidemiologists say, because the availability of vaccines had made most of those deaths avoidable.

Altogether, the year ending tonight has often felt disappointing and grim.

In addition to the direct damage from Covid, the disruptions to daily life — intended to slow the spread of the virus — have brought their own costs. Children have fallen behind in school, and for many, isolation has worsened their mental health. Adults are struggling, too; Americans’ blood pressure has risen, and drug overdoses have soared.

Even people who have avoided the worst of the pandemic’s damage often feel fed up. And the latest variant, Omicron, has sent cases soaring again, to their highest levels yet, and raised the prospect that 2022 will be another year of pandemic purgatory.

At this point, it should be clear that there are no Covid guarantees. Perhaps future variants will emerge, even more dangerous than Omicron or Delta. But the most likely scenario is more hopeful, many experts believe. As the New Year arrives, there are reasons to hope that 2022 will become what people expected 2021 to be — the year that Covid switched from being a pandemic to an endemic virus, not so different from the flu.

Emerging evidence suggests that Omicron really is milder than earlier versions of this coronavirus (either because of intrinsic biological reasons or because of higher levels of population immunity). In South Africa and England, as well as New York, San Francisco and other parts of the U.S., hospitalization numbers are lower than doctors feared.

Omicron will still do terrible damage, especially among the millions of middle-aged and older Americans who remain unvaccinated as well as the hundreds of millions of adults worldwide who remain unvaccinated, because of either vaccine skepticism or unavailability. Many hospitals face the risk of being overwhelmed in the coming weeks.

But when the current surge begins receding, it will likely have left a couple of silver linings. Omicron is so contagious that it will have infected a meaningful share of the population, increasing the amount of Covid immunity and helping defang the virus.

As important, the world has more powerful weapons to fight Covid than it did only a few weeks ago: two new post-infection treatments, one from Merck and a more powerful one from Pfizer, that lower the risk of hospitalization and death. With Pfizer’s treatment, the reduction is almost 90 percent, according to early research trials.

All of which suggests that the U.S. could emerge from the Omicron wave significantly closer to the most realistic Covid future — one in which it becomes an endemic disease that is a more normal part of daily life. It will still cause illness and death; a typical flu season kills about 35,000 Americans, most of them older. For the foreseeable future, battling Covid — through vaccination, treatment and research — will remain important.

But endemic disease does not need to dominate life the way a pandemic does. It does not need to cause the sort of social isolation and public health problems that Covid has over the past two years.

If the U.S. reaches that point in 2022 — as looks likely — the next New Year’s Eve will feel a lot more satisfying than this one.

Still, even that is more than last year, when only a few hundred people, including dozens of frontline workers, were invited to watch the ball drop in person.

New Yorkers had hoped that coronavirus vaccines, which had only just arrived around this time a year ago, would bring New York fully back to its status as an international beacon of New Year’s Eve cheer. But the Omicron variant, which is spreading quickly in the city among the vaccinated and unvaccinated alike, has doused that optimism.

New York State reported 74,000 new cases of the virus on Thursday, about 44,000 of them in New York City. Hospitalizations are also beginning to rise steeply, with some 3,600 people hospitalized in the city, more than triple the number 10 days ago. More than 400 people in the city, most of whom are unvaccinated, are now in intensive care with Covid-19.

Mayor Bill de Blasio, who will oversee the ball’s descent in his last official act as mayor, has been determined to keep the festivities going in some form. His successor, Eric Adams, has followed his lead, and will be sworn into office in Times Square just after midnight.

“We want to show that we’re moving forward and we want to show the world that New York City is fighting our way through this,” Mr. de Blasio said in an interview on the “Today” show on Thursday. “It’s really important to not give up in the face of this.”

Several TV networks will host live specials from Times Square. Ryan Seacrest will anchor ABC’s “Dick Clark’s New Year’s Rockin’ Eve,” and Anderson Cooper and Andy Cohen will kick off CNN’s event. NBC will host the night partly from New York and partly from Miami.

Fox canceled its live special in Times Square last week over Covid-19 concerns. And although the musical artists KT Tunstall, Karol G and Journey are still scheduled to perform, the rapper LL Cool J dropped out on Wednesday after saying he had tested positive for the virus.

In some tourist destinations, however, the party was going ahead largely unchanged. Beaches in Goa were packed with Indian tourists, with hotel occupancy reported as high as 90 percent. But the state government has ordered bars, restaurants and party venues to admit only those carrying a vaccination certificate or proof of a negative P.C.R. test.

The economic blow of the first two waves, Covid fatigue and the country’s nonstop cycle of elections had led India to largely do away with restrictions and open up in recent months. To avoid another wave, the government banked on having all 900 million adults vaccinated by the end of the year. Progress on that goal has been modest — about 60 percent of the eligible population has received two vaccine doses, and 90 percent one dose.

But that strategy has been thrown into question now, with initial studies showing that the vaccines India is using — mainly a locally manufactured version of the Oxford-AstraZeneca shot — do not protect against infection with the Omicron variant.

With Omicron’s severity still unclear, the country enters 2022 fearing a repeat of the havoc that the Delta variant wrought. Daily case numbers have climbed by almost 40 percent in recent days, with more than 16,700 new cases reported on Thursday, although numbers remain far below earlier peaks.

The health sector’s preparedness is in doubt, not only because of the toll that the pandemic has taken on medical workers, but also because tens of thousands of doctors went on strike for weeks in protest of the slow recruitment of new doctors. The strike was called off on Friday.

Adding to the foreboding sense of déjà vu is the attitude of the country’s political leaders: Even as they call for vigilance and reintroduce restrictions and nighttime curfews, parties continue to pack thousands of people into election rallies during the day.

France dropped its first mandatory outdoor mask policy in June, about a year after it was imposed, in a move that symbolized for many the retreat of the pandemic. About the same time, it lifted curfew measures and reopened bars and restaurants.

Other French cities and regions in recent days have also reimposed mandatory mask-wearing outside, following similar moves by several European countries, including Spain, Greece and Italy.

France has registered two straight days of more than 200,000 new coronavirus cases, its most ever, which the health minister, Olivier Véran, has compared to a “tsunami.” The spread of Omicron — which studies indicate is more resistant to vaccines, though it may produce less severe illness — has threatened to undermine France’s pandemic social contract, which has made a return to normal life contingent on vaccinations.

In Paris alone, the infection rate has reached “an unprecedented level” of 2,000 per 100,000 people, or about double the national average, according to a statement released by the Paris police on Wednesday.

Even as infections rise again, the French government has been reluctant to take more restrictive measures, like the lockdowns and curfews that turned Paris into a ghost city last year. But it did cancel its New Year’s Eve celebration, which was to include fireworks over the Champs-Élysées. Large public parties have also been banned.

Yves Buisson, an epidemiologist at the French National Academy of Medicine, told the franceinfo radio station on Thursday that “all precautionary measures are essential” in today’s situation.

“Transmission happens less outside than inside,” he said, “but it’s not nonexistent, especially in areas with high population density.”

Instead, officials encouraged caution: masks, proof of vaccination and limits on the number of people who can gather. After a 107-day lockdown this year because of a Delta-variant outbreak, Sydney, Australia’s most populous city, seemed ready to move on and muddle through the year-end surge.

Australia’s chief medical officer, Prof. Paul Kelly, said that even though cases would continue to rise, evidence showed that the Omicron variant led to less severe consequences than previous strains.

“It is a different virus, very different from previous versions of the virus,” he said on Thursday, citing studies from South Africa and elsewhere.

And yet, despite the government’s pleas for normalcy, businesses catering to the festivities reported widespread cancellations. Cruise companies, restaurants and music festivals have all experienced an exodus both of workers and customers — some because they were sick or were in close contact with someone who was, others because they feared becoming ill.

Other parts of Australia have reported fewer cases but had their own set of unexpected disruptions. The city of Melbourne canceled a planned light show with overhead drones. Perth, the capital of Western Australia, which has been especially strict with lockdowns and closed borders, canceled music festivals for the holiday and banned dancing at nightclubs.

But a horse race scheduled for New Year’s Day will go on as planned.

Dr. Anthony S. Fauci, the nation’s top infectious disease expert, recommends having small gatherings with family and friends at homes where people are vaccinated with booster shots, citing a low risk for infection.

Here’s a look at how Omicron has forced some cities to change their plans for Dec. 31:

New York City

Mayor Bill de Blasio announced a downsizing of the celebration in Times Square to at most 15,000 guests, nearly a quarter of the usual amount, who will be allowed in at 3 p.m. at the earliest. Attendees will be required to wear masks and show proof of full vaccination.

Los Angeles

Several Los Angeles County holiday events have been canceled, including the New Year’s countdown in Grand Park, which will now be streamed.

Boston

All First Night Boston events have been moved outdoors, and vaccinations, booster shots and rapid tests will be available at the festivities.

Atlanta

The city’s Peach Drop, an outdoor celebration that typically draws thousands, was canceled.

San Francisco

With staffing shortages of municipal workers brought on by Omicron infections, the city canceled its New Year’s Eve fireworks show.

Seattle

There will be no spectators allowed at the Space Needle’s fireworks show. People can watch on a livestream instead.

London

Sadiq Khan, the mayor of London, announced last week that the New Year’s Eve event in Trafalgar Square was canceled, saying, “The safety of Londoners must come first.”

Paris

Paris has canceled its celebration, which was to include fireworks over the Champs-Élysées. Large public parties are also banned. Additionally, wearing masks outdoors is mandatory, beginning Friday.

Rome

Celebrations have been scrapped in several Italian cities, including Rome and Venice. Outdoor events have been banned, and nightclubs will be closed through January.

Berlin

Berlin’s annual New Year’s Eve party at the Brandenburg Gate will go on, but without an audience. The performances will be live on television. Gatherings are limited to a maximum of 10 people.

Tokyo

Shibuya Crossing in Tokyo typically attracts tens of thousands of people for one of the biggest New Year celebrations in the world. This year, like last year, the revelry has been called off. Public drinking has been banned in Shibuya on Dec. 31 and Jan. 1.

New Delhi

The Delhi Disaster Management Authority has banned all social, political and cultural gatherings, including Christmas and New Year celebrations, according to The Economic Times newspaper.

Cape Town

Cape Town is still allowing New Year’s Eve gatherings, but several restrictions are in place. Masks are required in public areas and nightclubs are closed.

Casablanca

The authorities banned New Year’s Eve celebrations throughout Morocco, including in Casablanca, its most populous city. There will be a curfew from midnight to 6 a.m.

Kampala

There is a ban on New Year’s Eve fireworks across Uganda, including in Kampala, the capital. Nighttime religious services are also prohibited.

Madrid

Large public festivities have been canceled across much of Spain. One exception is Madrid, where a crowd of up to 7,000 people is allowed to gather at the central Puerta del Sol square.

Mexico City

Mexico’s capital canceled its typically giant celebrations.

“We have to get back the best we can to having normal lives,” Mayor Carolyn Goodman said on Wednesday at a news briefing.

Clark County, which contains Las Vegas, is averaging about 1,255 new cases a day, more than double the average from two weeks ago, according to a New York Times database. About 53 percent of adults in the county are fully vaccinated.

Revelers in San Antonio are also returning to ring in 2022, after last year’s events were canceled in downtown’s Riverwalk because of the pandemic. The event, Celebrate SA, did not suffer from cancellations, despite a steady rise in Covid cases in the city attributed to the Omicron variant.

Crowds are expected to descend on La Villita and the area surrounding the Hemisfair park, including the Tower of the Americas, to enjoy live music and a fireworks show. Officials had said they felt outdoor spaces provided fewer opportunities for new infections.

Ron Nirenberg, the mayor of San Antonio, urged residents to wear masks in crowded places and get vaccinated as precautionary measures.

“When in doubt, mask up, especially in large crowds or when you don’t know the vaccination status of the people you’re with,” Mr. Nirenberg said.

Omicron accounted for about 25 percent of all new infections in Texas during the week of Dec. 11, according to the state’s health department. A week later that figure ballooned to about 85 percent.

Chicago will have a downtown fireworks display, even as cases in the city have soared to record levels. The fireworks will be launched at eight sites along a 1.5-mile stretch of Lake Michigan and the Chicago River, where several businesses have arranged viewing parties.

“Importantly, the display can be viewed outdoors where the spread of Covid-19 is less likely, so our residents and visitors should feel comfortable while masking up and social distancing or even watching safely from home,” Mayor Lori Lightfoot said in a statement.

An indoor mask mandate remains in place in Chicago. Next week, a vaccine mandate will take effect for people wishing to dine indoors or visit gyms.

The city clerk will swear him in using Mr. Adams’s family Bible, and he will take office on Saturday at the tourist hot spot sometimes called the “Crossroads of the World.”

Mr. Adams has made a point of reveling in New York City’s nightlife, something that he has cast as boosterism for the city’s struggling club and restaurant scene. His swearing-in will come on the heels of Times Square’s annual New Year’s Eve celebration, featuring live performances by KT TunstaChlöe, and Journey.

Some epidemiologists have argued that Mayor Bill de Blasio should cancel the outdoor event in deference to the spread of the Omicron variant, but he has resisted, instead agreeing to limit the crowds to 15,000 and requiring masks and full vaccination.

Mr. Adams recently canceled an indoor inauguration ceremony he had planned for Saturday evening at Brooklyn’s opulently restored Kings Theatre, citing the surge in coronavirus cases. It isn’t clear when the ceremony will be rescheduled.