Biden must show he can play hardball
Lincoln Mitchell (@LincolnMitchell) teaches in the School of International and Public Affairs at Columbia University. His most recent book is “The Giants and Their City: Major League Baseball in San Francisco, 1976-1992.” (Kent State University Press, 2020). The views expressed in this commentary are his own. Read more opinion articles on CNN.
(CNN)One of the arguments Joe Biden made as a presidential candidate was that because of his long history in Washington, DC, he was uniquely positioned to pass legislation and, when necessary, reach across the aisle. Given the partisan nature of politics today, few gave the latter assertion much credence — but the idea that Biden knew how to work the US Senate well enough to win Democratic support for his proposals seemed plausible.
Now that we are almost a year into the Biden administration, it is apparent that this President may be a longtime Washington insider, but he is far from being the master of the Senate that he claimed to be. In a Senate where the Democratic majority rests on the thinnest of possible margins and Republicans have opposed Biden at almost every turn, the President needs every Democratic senator on pretty much every vote — and thus far he has not succeeded.
A major reason why Biden has not been able to consistently garner legislative support for the Build Back Better bill in the Senate — particularly from Democratic Sens. Kyrsten Sinema of Arizona and Joe Manchin of West Virginia — is that virtually no one fears the consequences of breaking with the President’s agenda. Many legislators in the nation’s capital like the amiable enough president. But nobody is afraid of saying no to him.
We were reminded of this earlier this week when a call between Manchin and the President was described by the White House as “constructive,” a largely meaningless word in Washington, DC, while Manchin stressed that the Build Back Better bill should be “within the limits” of “what we can afford.” In other words, it seems likely that Manchin remains unpersuaded and has no qualms about saying as much.
Presidential power requires artfully wielding both carrots and sticks, but 11 months into Biden’s presidency, we have not seen much of the latter. On the other hand, Sinema and Manchin have asserted a great deal of influence over what final legislation — on everything from voting rights to the Build Back Better bill — looks like.
This relationship between the chief executive and the legislators of his party stands in stark contrast to Biden’s predecessor, Donald Trump, who was widely feared by Republican legislators, many of whom continue to fear him because of the power he still wields within the GOP. Fear is only one tool that a president must be able to wield — without it, presidents often have little ability to bring along hesitant legislators.
While Trump can still threaten to support a primary opponent of any Republican legislator who dares to criticize him, Biden does not have that kind of power over Manchin. West Virginia is such a deeply Republican state that it is extraordinary that any Democrat represents it in the Senate. Even if a more liberal Democrat could unseat Manchin in a primary, that candidate would almost certainly get drubbed in the general election. Moreover, Manchin’s standing regarding Biden is bolstered by the implicit possibility he could switch parties and give the Republicans a majority in the Senate. Though Manchin denies that possibility, his most recent comments on the subject leave room for speculation.
Biden must therefore tread carefully around Manchin. Like all presidents, however, he has some additional tools he can use to pressure the West Virginia senator. There are things that Manchin, like any senator, wants and needs from the President — such as support for candidates for federal judgeships, jobs in the administration for West Virginians and special projects and expenditures in his state, including those related to the recently passed infrastructure bill.
Withholding some or all of these things from Manchin could create problems for the senator and remind him that Biden is willing to wield his presidential power — rather than continuing to engage in endless rounds of “constructive,” but ultimately fruitless discussions. The President could exert similar leverage over Sinema, probably even more so because Arizona is a purple state where another Democrat could feasibly unseat Sinema in a primary and then go on to a competitive general election.
As it stands, Manchin and Sinema know they can go against the rest of their party and slow down, cut back or stop the passage of proposed legislation. Biden needs to do something to change that dynamic. Manchin and Sinema might change their behavior if they understand the downsides of exerting their de facto veto power over major legislation. Biden should make clear that tanking the Build Back Better bill, for example, could preclude favorable treatment from the White House and endanger important projects in their states.
This is how politics has worked for decades in Democratic and Republican administrations.
Presidents Lyndon B. Johnson, Ronald Reagan, Barack Obama and Trump understood how to play the political game as they pushed their agendas on major legislation including The Great Society, the 1981 Omnibus Budget Reconciliation Act, the 2010 Affordable Care Act and the 2017 tax cuts, respectively.
Johnson, more specifically, was only able to make Rep. Howard Smith, a segregationist Democrat from Virginia, move the Civil Rights Act through the House Rules Committee after threatening to take the bill away from Smith’s committee altogether and rounding up the votes to do just that. More recently, Trump threatened Republican senators who were wavering in their support for him in his 2021 impeachment, suggesting consequences would be dire for those who opposed him.
It is apparent, after almost a year of Biden trying to pass his agenda, that Manchin and Sinema are not going to be swayed by appeals to party loyalty, doing the right thing for millions of Americans or any other form of cajoling. It is equally clear that they are not afraid of Biden, Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer or any other player in the legislative arena. The President must change that by showing that he too can play hardball.
Source: https://www.cnn.com/2021/12/16/opinions/biden-manchin-sinema-political-hardball-mitchell/index.html
