Tensions are rising on the Poland-Belarus border. Here’s what you need to know

One Syrian asylum-seeker, who recently arrived in Poland after his third attempt at crossing the border from Belarus, told CNN that on arriving at the border, guards caught him and three others in his group. He was beaten up, and suffered facial injuries, a broken nose and bruised ribs.

Polish authorities said seven migrants have been found dead on Poland’s side of the border, with reports of more deaths in Belarus.

Since the beginning of November, there have been 4,500 recorded border crossing attempts, according to Polish authorities. The Polish border guard said it had recorded around 1,000 crossing attempts in the last two days, including some “large-scale” efforts with groups of more than 100 people trying to breach the fence. Polish authorities have detained small numbers of people, allowing only small numbers of people the option of applying for asylum in Poland. Others have been immediately sent back to Belarus.

A Polish border guard representative told CNN earlier this week that some of the migrants had been pushed toward the barriers by Belarusian services.

Access to the area is tightly restricted. Journalists and aid workers have been blocked from traveling to the area by an exclusion zone.

Poland’s government is ramping up its nationalist rhetoric

Polish President Andrzej Duda visited the border late on Thursday in a show of solidarity with the military, police and border guards. Earlier in the day, Duda addressed thousands of Poles who marched through Warsaw to celebrate Independence Day.

In a speech with nationalistic references in support of the government’s strict policy of keeping the border with Belarus closed to migrants, he said: “We have always been, we are and we will be part of a Europe based on Christian values, which are also the foundations of our tradition and culture.”

“The time has come when you need to defend your homeland. But we need to guard its borders more than before,” Duda said, adding: “It must be done with dedication, with sleepless nights, in coldness, in hardship, in a very ungrateful situation to which we were forced by the hybrid actions of the Belarusian regime against Poland and against the European Union.”

Humanitarian groups are accusing Poland’s ruling party of violating the international right to asylum by pushing people back into Belarus instead of accepting their applications for protection. Under article 14 of the Universal Declaration of Human Rights, everyone has the right to seek and enjoy asylum from persecution in other countries. Poland says its actions are legal.

A larger political crisis is brewing

Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko has previously been accused of manufacturing a migrant crisis on the border by the prime ministers of neighboring Poland, Latvia and Lithuania, leading Poland to adopt a bill in October for the construction of a wall along its border with Belarus.

Lukashenko’s government has repeatedly denied such claims, instead blaming the West for the crossings and treatment of migrants.

Russia, Belarus’ largest (and most important) political and economic partner, has defended Minsk’s handling of the issue and has denied any involvement in the crisis.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said on Thursday that Moscow “has nothing to do with what is happening on the border of Belarus and Poland.” And on Monday, Peskov said Belarus was taking all necessary measures to act legally.

Russia underlined their support for the Lukashenko regime by performing joint military exercises over Belarusian airspace this week.

On Wednesday, two long-range Russian Tupolev Tu-22M3 supersonic long-range bombers practiced “issues of interaction with ground control points” with armed forces of both countries, the Russian Ministry of Defense said. On Thursday, they carried out those flights over Belarus’ airspace for a second time.

The two nations then held joint paratrooper drills near the Polish border on Friday.

Meanwhile, Ukraine is also scaling up security around border with Belarus. On Thursday, it announced it would hold military drills with some 8,500 servicemen and 15 helicopters in an area near its borders with Poland and Belarus to counter a potential migrant crisis.

The crisis at the Poland-Border is continuing to test a fragile political order, with allegations from the United States on Russia’s military buildup this week deepening concerns over the potential for a wider geopolitical crisis.

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said on Wednesday that the US is “concerned by reports of unusual Russian military activity” and mentioned the possibility that Russia may be “attempting to rehash” its 2014 invasion of Ukraine.

On Friday, Russia called allegations that it could invade Ukraine “empty, groundless escalation of tensions.”

Belarus faces new sanctions

The United States and the European Union have announced new sanctions against Belarus this week.

On Wednesday, the White House’s National Security Council said the US is preparing “follow-up sanctions” designed to hold Belarusian leaders accountable for “ongoing attacks on democracy, human rights and international norms.” The spokesperson did not specify when the new sanctions would come into place.

“We are deeply concerned by the Lukashenka regime’s inhumane actions and strongly condemn their callous exploitation and coercion of vulnerable people,” the spokesperson said.

This is the second round of sanctions announced by the US in recent months. In August, the White House announced a sweeping executive order targeting those in the Belarusian regime involved in the repression of human rights and democracy.

The executive order was released on the one-year anniversary of Belarus’ election, which sparked widespread protests throughout the country and which the US — and much of the international community — declared fraudulent.

On Thursday, Germany’s acting Foreign Minister Heiko Maas told German parliament that the EU had decided to “expand and tighten its sanctions against Lukashenko’s regime” at a meeting of foreign ministers in Brussels.

”Those people and companies actively involved in human trafficking will be further sanctioned, no matter where on the globe,” Maas said of the proposed sanctions, adding that there were “other options on the table,” including expanding current economic sanctions.