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Risk, Recovery and Resilience – New Report Looks at How Gender Equality Impacts a Country’s Post-Covid Prospects

Risk, Recovery and Resilience – New Report Looks at How Gender Equality Impacts a Country’s Post-Covid Prospects
  • Avonhurst produces ground-breaking study examining the pandemic’s effects on gender equality and country risk

LONDON – The Global Political Strategy team at Avonhurst has produced a new analysis examining the pandemic’s impact upon gender equality and country risk – the first study to make this connection in the aftermath of the pandemic.

Avonhurst Global Gender Equality

Avonhurst Global Gender Equality

Setback – Gender Equality and the Pandemic Implications for Country Risk, Resilience and Recovery is by Tina Fordham, Partner & Head of Global Political Strategy and Dr Tsveta Petrova, Data & Innovation Advisor.

Fordham, former Citibank’s Chief Global Political Analyst, highlights that the pandemic has brought about a reversal in gender equality globally, overturning many of the hard-won gains of the last few decades, but countries with higher levels of gender equality are better positioned to rebound from the pandemic crisis.

The analysis also highlights the linkage between equality, good governance and effective crisis reaction function – useful insights for investors focused on country risk, anticipating the recovery trajectory and innovative approaches to ESG (Environmental, Social and Governance).

The report draws upon the team’s previously published research on VAX Populi Risk (described as “a breakthrough in investment research”).

Tina Fordham comments: “Gender equality as a variable relevant for evaluating a country’s risk and resilience has been historically overlooked. The pandemic presents an opportunity to revisit this, as investors broaden their view of political and socio-economic risk factors. Substantial research indicates that countries that feature higher levels of gender equality can be expected not only to return to normal more quickly, but to be more resilient to future shocks. This means it has never been more vital to explore the relationship between equality and country.

“With this in mind, Avonhurst’s Global Political Strategy team has not only published this ground-breaking report – the first of its kind – but has also launched a new analytical tool to address this gap in common understanding. Our Pandemic Gender Equality (PGE) framework combines measures of the most significant country-level risks associated with the COVID-19 pandemic with indicators capturing gender inequality and combines them into a unique analytical framework. This ensures that, as the effects of the pandemic continue to reverberate, our clients will be more informed on risk than ever.”


Launched in July 2019 with a substantial client portfolio, Avonhurst is dedicated to meeting the changing needs of sophisticated capital by providing a bespoke offering comprising legal, legislative / political risk advisory and capital services. A group of market-leading founders and influencers from the legal world have created a revolutionary advisory business dedicated to helping funds, capital providers, corporate borrowers and issuers, and secured lenders, navigate the complexities of ever-changing markets.

Tina Fordham has been named in the Top 100 Geopolitical Experts (alongside Condoleezza Rice) and the FN’s Top 100 Most Influential Women in European Finance. Her ground-breaking career includes being appointed to the United Nation’s first High-Level Panel on Women’s Economic Empowerment (which also included IMF president Christine Lagarde), and speaking at the United Nations, Davos, the Milken Institute, World Bank, and Fortune Most Powerful Women, as well as serving on the International Advisory Boards of the think tank Carnegie Europe, and the School of International and Public Affairs at Columbia University.

Dr. Tsveta Petrova is on the Faculty at Columbia University, New York, specialising in global governance, (geo-)political risk; politics, and society. Prior to joining Avonhurst, she led Eurasia Group’s incubator for innovative political risk analytics and research partnerships with other companies, overseeing the development and launch of qualitative and quantitative commercial products that leveraged advances in research methods, big data, and machine learning.