Opinion: The real key to winning this election
The long lines are an important reminder that the 2020 election will be won or lost based on the ground game. While some Americans may now be spending much of their time obsessing over the latest RealClear Politics polling averages and sweating out the breaking news on their television sets, the next US President will be decided based on who turns out the biggest vote.
To be sure, turning out the vote always matters in any true democracy. But in an era of intense partisan polarization, when the kinds of landslide victories we saw in 1964 (Lyndon B. Johnson won 486 Electoral College votes to Barry Goldwater’s 52) and 1984 (Ronald Reagan won 525 electoral votes to Walter Mondale’s 13) have disappeared, elections are won and lost in battleground states.
In 2016, Trump’s victory came down to very small numbers of voters in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania. Voting restrictions (photo identification requirements, registration limits and more) that have been imposed in more than 25 states heighten the importance of obtaining as large a margin as possible. And while persuasion can matter with slivers of the independent electorate, the factor that matters most is which party is better at bringing out large numbers of their own voters.
In the 2020 election, both parties are energized. This election feels historic down to the bones. The fact that at least 56 million have already cast their ballots is evidence that Americans are clear about what’s at stake.
Though we have been following this campaign for many months, the outcome will be determined by which party’s get-out-the-vote (GOTV) apparatus is more effective in the next nine days. Former Vice President Joe Biden might be leading the national polls, but that won’t matter if the poll numbers are not translated into equivalent votes.
This means that each party needs to make sure that every supporter has a clear voting plan if they have not already mailed-in their ballots. The campaigns have to be certain that they have as many people possible canvassing voters and working the phone banks. They need to be certain that they are recruiting as many people as possible, especially younger ones, who are less susceptible to the worst effects of Covid-19, to staff the polling places on Election Day to make sure that the process is as orderly and speedy as possible.
The victorious candidate will be the one whose party is able to use social media as a site for promoting their agenda rather than taking selfies and filming silly dances. The winner will be the party whose supporters do the important work of spreading the word through work, family and friendship networks about what is at stake on November 3 and making the case that their candidate is the only viable option for the nation as it tries to move out of this grave crisis. Each party needs to do the better job selling the message that not voting is simply not an option.
The victor will be the party that does the best job making sure that on Election Day every citizen who has not voted makes that trip to their polling place and feels that they can do so safely. This is the grunt work that turns elections.
We live in a passive, observational age where so much of our politics has turned into what we watch, hear, read, email and tweet. The news media — from cable television to Twitter — provides a permanent platform where one can spend their time absorbed in politics without ever leaving their home.
Winning elections, however, requires taking action. The old-fashioned stuff of politics still matters more than anything else. The battle from now through November 3 revolves around getting people to cast their vote. Although there are troubling questions about what might happen after election day — such as potential legal challenges in close states — right now the focus needs to be on turning out that vote.
The party that can turn the sense of urgency so many Americans feel into actual votes will win the White House and Congress. The party that forgets to pay sufficient attention to the ground game is the one that will be rendered powerless come January 2021.
