Minnesota Seemed Ripe for a Trump Breakout. It Has Not Arrived.

Mr. Biden’s advantage is driven by an erosion of Republican support for Mr. Trump in the state’s metropolitan areas, continuing the trend of suburban voters’ fleeing a president in crisis. In interviews, several of the voters reached for the Times poll, particularly those in suburban and rural regions that are bellwethers for the state, described rejecting Mr. Trump’s pitch about law and order and focusing on themes Mr. Biden has tried to stress: decency, experience, and Mr. Trump’s handling of the coronavirus pandemic.

Victoria Delgrande, an 85-year-old in St. Louis County in northern Minnesota, said she had voted for Mr. Trump in 2016 but deeply regretted that decision. Ms. Delgrande said she would vote for Mr. Biden in November.

“I was kind of hesitant to vote for him to begin with, but I thought he would do good for the country,” she said. “He has not. He has taken us backward. Oh, my God — I don’t even like talking about that man. Because he’s that bad.”

Sarah Cox, a 41-year-old social worker who lives in suburban Little Canada, Minn., said she thought that most people in the Twin Cities area had seen through Mr. Trump’s ability to stoke fear.

“There were a lot of people who voted for Trump in the first election who didn’t want a politician,” Ms. Cox said. “With Joe Biden, I think that he has that compassionate sincere desire to help his nation.

“He knows if he goes too far left he’ll lose people,” she added of the Democratic nominee. “He’s a moderate, and that’ll help him grab trust from both parties.”

In many ways, Minnesota Republicans often sound as if they’re describing a state entirely different from the one that has elected a mix of liberal, moderate and conservative pragmatists and reformers for decades. In the Republican version, violence and crime in major cities has ground society to a halt, and the November election will be a backlash to liberal lawlessness.